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Learn MoreCountries & Consumers brings you the latest update on global commodity markets. In March 2012, global commodity prices of energy and food rose on a monthly basis, while metal prices declined marginally compared to February 2012. Political tensions in the Middle East kept upward pressure on global oil prices during the month, whereas signs of easing economic activity in China weighed on the prices of metals. Nevertheless, global commodity prices are expected to remain volatile during the short term.
In March 2012, the Commodity Fuel (energy) Index increased by 3.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) following a 4.5% monthly rise in February 2012. During the month, oil prices grew as political tension in the Middle East caused a higher risk premium to be priced into the commodity. Factors like speculative activity in the oil futures markets and a weaker US dollar towards the end of March 2012 also put upward pressure on oil prices during the month. On the other hand, natural gas prices from the Henry Hub Terminal, Louisiana plummeted by 25.9% m-o-m in March 2012, mainly as a result of record high inventory levels in the USA. Overall, the commodity fuel (energy) index recorded a 9.0% annual rise during the month, maintaining concerns about a potential increase in inflationary pressures that could have a negative impact on global economic growth.
The IMF Agricultural Raw Materials Index rose for the third consecutive month in March 2012, increasing by 1.3% over February 2012 mainly as a result of a surge in the price of hides. Conversely, the IMF Metals Index fell for the first time in three months in March 2012, decreasing marginally by 0.1% over the previous month. Signs of easing economic activity in China put downward pressure on prices of base metals during the month, with nickel and tin registering the largest monthly price declines amongst all base metals.
On an annual basis, growth in agricultural raw materials and metals indices declined by 18.7% and 15.3% respectively in March 2012. However, Euromonitor International forecasts prices of agricultural raw materials and metals to recover in the medium term. Annual growth of 10.2% and 25.8% respectively is expected by December 2012 as global economic growth regains momentum in the second half of 2012. In the short term, prices of raw materials – including metals – are expected to remain volatile and closely linked to market sentiment regarding the global economy and China, one of the world’s largest importers of industrial inputs.
Source: Euromonitor International from the IMF
Note: (1) The Commodity Fuel (Energy) Index includes coal (4.0%), natural gas (11.1%) and petroleum (85.0%). (2) Agricultural Raw Materials Index includes cotton (9.1%), hides (33.8%), rubber (6.5%), timber (44.2%), wool (fine and coarse) (6.5%). (3) Metals Index includes Aluminum (36.8%), copper (26.4%), iron ore (12.3%), lead (1.9%), nickel (10.4%), tin (1.9%), uranium (4.7%), zinc (5.7%). (4) Data is not seasonally adjusted. (5) Data for the period April 2012 – September 2012 are forecasts and subject to bi-weekly revisions.
Source: Euromonitor International from EIA
Note: (1) Brent crude is a major classification of oil, used to price two thirds of the world’s internationally traded crude oil supplies. West Texas Intermediate (WTI Cushing) also known as Texas Light Sweet, is a type of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing. (2) Data refer to average monthly prices. (3) Data is not seasonally adjusted. (4) Data for the period April 2012 – September 2012 are forecasts and subject to bi-weekly revisions.
Source: Euromonitor International from IMF
Note: (1) Food Index refers to Bananas 2.4%, cereals (maize, rice, and wheat) 21.6%, meat (beef, lamb, swine meat, poultry) 22.2%, vegetable oils and protein meals (coconut oil, fishmeal, groundnuts, olive oil, palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, sunflower oil) 26.3%, seafood (fish, shrimp) 19.2%, oranges 3.0%, sugar 5.4%. (2) Wheat price refers to United States, No. 1 hard red winter, ordinary protein, export price delivered at the Gulf port for prompt or 30 days shipment. (3) Cocoa price refers to New York and London, International Cocoa Organization daily price, average of the first three positions on the terminal markets of New York and London, nearest three future trading months. (4) Coffee price refers to International Coffee Organization (New York and Le Havre/Marseille markets), ICO indicator price, Robustas, average, ex-dock. (5) Sugar price refers to World, International Sugar Agreement daily price, raw, f.o.b. and stowed at greater Caribbean ports. Food pric
Source: Euromonitor International from IMF
Note: (1) Growth in US$ per metric ton. (2) Data is not seasonally adjusted. (3) Data for the period April 2012 – September 2012 are forecasts and subject to bi-weekly revisions.