Global Economic Forecasts: the Brexit Scenario
Even though there is considerable uncertainty around the exact conditions of a potential Brexit, most of the attempts to quantify the economic impact of leaving the EU on the UK economy provide negative results. Estimates by Euromonitor Macro Model show long-term GDP decline of 2% relative to a baseline, raising the unemployment rate and causing higher inflation due to depreciated pound. The possibility of ceasing EU membership is already having a short-term effect on the UK economy.
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