US Elections – The Clinton and Trump Scenarios
All eyes are on the USA in the coming month as the country is embroiled in one of the most controversial US elections in history. The outcome of the November 2016 Presidential election will have global repercussions, given the USA’s status as the largest consumer market globally, accounting for US$12.0 trillion in 2015.
Euromonitor International’s consumers team turn the spotlight on the USA, from the Digital Consumer, Households, Income and Expenditure, Lifestyles and Population angles. Insights include a Clinton promise to address the country’s broadband access inequality; the purchasing power of childless couples to be hit by a Trump win as well as a slowdown in the expansion of the richest income segment; growing cynicism of the US population towards politicians; and the shrinking of the labour force as a result of potential immigration curbs.
The Economies team turn the spotlight on the USA, from the Business Dynamics, Cities, Economy, Industrial and Natural Resources angles. Insights include the USA facing greater competition for high skilled jobs generally; potential trade wars across US trade-dependent cities such as Houston as a result of a Trump victory, especially in light of rising protectionist rhetoric; while Mexico and Ireland are set to be the worst-hit economies should Trump win. We expect all the industries where Trump is active in his businesses to see a downturn in the event of a Republican victory, while the US position as a leader of renewable energy would also face a setback.
Additional Euromonitor Insights:
Euromonitor International has introduced a new macroeconomic scenario, mapping out likely outcomes should Donald Trump become US president.
Roshni Wani Thapa, Economies and Consumers Analyst Euromonitor International
“Since 2014, under President Barack Obama, the nation has posted one of the highest economic growth rates among the G7 economies, boosted by a continued rise in consumer spending and an improvement in the labour market. The Presidential elections present to the citizens the choice between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, both with varying point of views in the functioning of the state. However, Trump’s potential victory would deteriorate the country’s fiscal position, trade ties and business sentiments, which according to the Trump Downturn Scenario in Euromonitor’s Macro Model would reduce the country’s real GDP by approximately 4.7% relative to the baseline forecast over 2017-2021; whilst Clinton is expected to continue with current economic policies. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton, is associated with broad continuation of current economic policies and plans to bring about modest changes that would not shock the prevailing system. Hence, her victory should bring about much lesser volatility in the US economy than Trump’s.”
Economic Landscape of the USA
Kotryna Tamoseviciene, Macro Analysis Manager, Euromonitor International
“The scenario suggests US GDP would nearly stagnate in 2017. Growth over 5 years would be 4.7% less in total than currently forecasted. We assign a 10-20% probability to this scenario. The Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, is associated with broad continuation of current economic policies and Euromonitor’s baseline macroeconomic scenario for the USA is based on the assumption of a Clinton victory (which we consider the most likely scenario, supported by the poll results at the time of writing).”
TRUMP DOWNTURN SCENARIO ON EUROMONITOR MACRO MODEL
For more information, please visit: https://blog.euromonitor.com/2016/10/trump-administration-us-and-global-economy.html
FOCUS ON ALCOHOLIC DRINKS
The US elections also would have an impact on the industry level, with alcoholic drinks being one of the affected markets.
Spiros Malandrakis, Senior Alcoholic Drinks Analyst, comments:
“While the probability of a Trump election scenario is relatively low, the candidate’s aggressive and protectionist rhetoric would actually translate into additional volatility and headwinds for growth in all categories – not merely on a US level but globally.”
For more information, please visit: https://blog.euromonitor.com/2016/10/trump-forecast-scenario-impact-alcoholic-drinks.html