Tobacco In Flux: Smoke-Free Products As An Alternative To Cigarettes

The current state of the tobacco industry is changing.  Global cigarette sales are in decline and a new “nicotine industry” is emerging with e-cigarettes and vapour products increasing in popularity. Euromonitor International’s data shows that the cigarettes market will record a US$7.7 billion loss by 2021, compensated by the US$13.2 billion growth in heated tobacco products sales in the same period.

Shane MacGuill, head of tobacco research at Euromonitor International comments: “The continued growth in vapour products and the emergence of heated tobacco represent the major element of disruption for the tobacco industry. We believe that heated tobacco will gain a solid presence in at least 35 global markets by 2021, accounting for a share of 3.5 percent of total global cigarettes and heated tobacco value. Heated tobacco prospects are strong and strengthening. On this evidence, it is a truly a coming force in global tobacco.”

According to Euromonitor International, in 2016:

  • Global sales of heated tobacco products recorded more than USD 2 billion, with 171% growth in comparison to 2015
  • Japan was the largest heated tobacco market, accounting for a share of 96 percent of heated tobacco products global sales
  • Nine of the top 10 countries for heated tobacco sales are based in Europe, representing the fastest growing region in the world (+634% in Western Europe, +327% in Eastern Europe)
  • Germany was the second largest heated tobacco market but the USA will take its place by 2021
  • The third and fourth largest markets for heated tobacco products were Switzerland and Portugal respectively, which were also amongst the fastest growing markets
  • The UK represented the fastest growing market with 467% growth compared to 2015

Top 10 Heated Tobacco Markets

GeographyMarket size at retail in 2016 (USD million)
United Kingdom1.4

source: Euromonitor International

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