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Crimea

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June 10, 2014
Since our previous forecast update, the Russian outlook has continued to deteriorate. Year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter of 2014 was 0.9%, and the Ministry of Economic  Development estimates  that GDP declined by 0.5% relative to the previous quarter. In April, the HSBC composite Purchasing Managers‘  Index (PMI)  fell to 47.6, indicating the worst […]
June 4, 2014
The European Union is seeking to reduce its energy dependency, especially on Russian natural gas, in an effort to enhance the bloc’s energy security and bargaining power vis-à-vis energy suppliers. This is a challenging task, as the demand for imported gas has been rising across Europe. Options to diversify Europe’s energy mix are possible, but […]
June 1, 2014
Consumer income and expenditure across Eastern Europe are expected to see positive developments in 2014, backed by the region’s higher growth rates and declining inflation. However, high unemployment rates and currency depreciation will continue to affect consumer confidence. Meanwhile, political uncertainty arising from the Crimea crisis represents a key risk to Eastern Europe’s consumer markets […]
May 4, 2014
Despite the crisis in Crimea, which could possibly escalate to envelop the whole of Ukraine, it is the economic consequences which will likely have more of an impact on outbound travel from Russia to Western Europe, causing slower growth in Russian arrivals. Political Difficulties do not Influence Destination Selections Although Western European politicians have tabled […]
April 7, 2014
McDonald’s recently closed its restaurants in Crimea citing supply problems due to political unrest in the area. Although some analysts believe this move will have an impact on McDonald’s overall strategy in Russia, it is more likely the company will continue its expansion into a very important and growing fast food market. McDonald’s recently closed […]
Elizabeth Friend
April 4, 2014
Russia’s new car market is one of the fastest growing in Europe and is set to outgrow Germany by 2020, although the crisis in Crimea is likely to hamper overall growth in 2014. Nevertheless, some of the producers outsourcing locally-produced components could even benefit from the plummeting rouble. The long-term industry outlook also remains positive […]
March 26, 2014
So far the answer appears to be not a lot – Russia is already suffering from limited political and more substantial economic consequences from its decision to annex Crimea, which will escalate sharply if there is any further action in Ukraine. The timing – during a period of economic malaise in Russia -exacerbates the impact […]
March 8, 2014
Despite decrying Russia’s deployment of troops to the Crimea region and threats to boycott the forthcoming G8 summit in Sochi, EU members are unlikely to take any meaningful action against Russia in terms of economic sanctions, because of their reliance on Russia for gas. Gazprom, the Russian-owned gas company supplies around a fifth of the […]

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