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With China continuing to slow, the oil price around US$60, and other key commodities down – including tea, gold and copper – some of Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economies are facing strong headwinds this year.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/Eurostat/OECD/UN/IMF
Note: Data are forecast
Other major economies in the region have their own problems – for instance Ghana, which has negotiated a US$1 billion agreement with the IMF as its economy struggles with low gold and cocoa prices, a falling currency and high debt; and Kenya which is suffering from a downturn in tourist arrivals, twin deficits and the falling tea price.
Yet growth rates are for the main part expected to strengthen this year, with private final consumption forecast at 6.0% in 2015, up from 4.5% in 2014. This year, private final consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to reach US$1,152 billion (in 2014 prices) and will account for 67.0% of the region’s GDP. And this is the key to Africa’s growth – its potential as a consumer market, its young, fast-urbanising population and its burgeoning middle class – this is why Sub-Saharan Africa is still top of mind for many multinationals and why falling commodity prices will not put an end to the “Africa Rising” narrative.
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