Events and Risk Factors Weighing on Global Economy

Coronavirus second waves, vaccine production and the upcoming US elections are all weighing in on global economic outlooks. Currently, China is the only major economy expected to have positive growth in 2020, but that recovery experience isn’t expected to be replicated in other major economies.

A safe vaccine is likely to be produced in the middle of 2021, but vaccinating most of the population in affected countries will take at least two to four quarters, and it’s expected that even in this scenario, global real GDP will contract by almost 5 percent in 2020.