International Analyst Predictions for the 2013 Academy Awards

Will Euromonitor International’s analysts predict the winners?

On February 24th the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will hold the 85th annual Academy Awards (Oscars) in Los Angeles, California, recognizing the best in cinematic achievements in 2012. In anticipation of this event, Euromonitor International turned to our network of in-country analysts and in-house researchers around the world to get their predictions on three main awards categories: Best Picture, Best Foreign Language Film, and Best Director. While they are certainly not film experts, the Oscar predictions of these analysts offer global perspectives on what are generally considered to be American-centric awards.

Best picture predictions spread across three or four top contenders 

No consensus on which film will win the top prize, but analysts predict it will begin with “L”

When asked to predict which film will win the Best Picture award at the Oscars this year, analyst opinions seem to be split three ways. Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln,” Tom Hooper’s “Les Misérables,” and Ang Lee’s “Life of Pi” each garner more than 20% of the vote. Beyond these three films, “Argo,” directed by Ben Affleck, is the only other serious contender; just over one in ten analysts believe it will win the top prize. At the bottom of the list, “Amour” is not a favourite for Best Picture; however, its outlook is much brighter for Best Foreign Language Film (see below).

Best Picture Predictions
Best Picture Predictions
 

Regional loyalties in the US and Asia apparent in Best Picture predictions

Beyond the global level, analyst predictions for Best Picture fall into a noticeable pattern of regional loyalty. Analysts in the US, Canada, and the Caribbean heavily favour “Lincoln,” a film spearheaded by a legendary American director and focused on the final four months of the life of past US President Abraham Lincoln. Similarly, analysts in Asia-Pacific are the most likely to predict a win for “Life of Pi,” a story set primarily on the Pacific Ocean and brought to the screen by Taiwanese-born Ang Lee, the first person of Asian descent to win an Oscar for Best Director.

Regional Variations in Predictions among Top Three Best Picture Nominees


Regional Variations in Predictions Among Top Three Best Picture Nominees

Widespread agreement on “Amour” for Best Foreign Language Film

While analysts may have regional disagreements on which film they think will win Best Picture, there is little question about the predicted winner of Best Foreign Language Film. Well over half of analysts believe that “Amour,” a French-language film directed by Austrian filmmaker Michael Haneke, will take home the Oscar on February 24, a sentiment shared by many film critics worldwide.

Best Foreign Language Film Predictions


Best Foreign Language Film Predictions

 

Spielberg predicted to win Best Director…except in Asia-Pacific

Globally, 51% of analysts picked Steven Spielberg and 34% picked Ang Lee to win the Oscar for Best Director, both far exceeding any predictions of success for their competitors. However, regional loyalties are once again apparent as Spielberg and Lee go head-to-head for their films “Lincoln” and “Life of Pi.” Over two-thirds of analysts in the Americas expect Spielberg to win, while an even stronger three-quarter majority of analysts in Asia-Pacific predict an Oscar for Lee.

Best Director Predictions by Region


Best Director Predictions by Region

Let the waiting begin

Until the Academy Awards ceremony commences on February 24, we can only speculate on likely Oscar winners. Will analysts in Asia-Pacific be vindicated in their predictions with multiple wins for Ang Lee’s “Life of Pi”? Will the Academy favour American history and award Steven Spielberg with his third Oscar for Best Director? Or will “Argo,” winner of many earlier awards this season but not an Oscar front-runner, surpass both to take the prize for Best Picture? Over six thousand members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will soon cast their votes on these and other prize categories.

More information about our survey research and analysis