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Euromonitor International is pleased to provide our blog readers with the executive summary of our new macroeconomic outlook, Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2018. The quarterly strategy briefing provides the latest Euromonitor International macroeconomic forecasts, assessment of the global economy, discussion of recent events and a deeper analysis of key economies.
Global economic activity continues to perform strongly, both in advanced and emerging market economies. Global real GDP expanded by 4.0% in Q4 2017, which was notably above our baseline forecast a year ago. Growth was supported by higher investment activity in advanced economies, higher consumer demand in emerging markets, and a rebound in global trade.
In the May 2018 baseline we forecast global real GDP to grow by 3.8-3.9% per year over 2018-2019, albeit with a gradual easing on the cards as central banks tighten monetary policy, US fiscal stimulus subsides, and China’s slowdown progresses. Despite positive near-term economic prospects for the world, debt levels, financial market volatility, trade and geopolitical tensions pose a threat.
Our newly-introduced Global Downturn scenario captures hypothetical effects of the above downside risks. The scenario assumes escalating fears about trade wars and more populist policies, as well as concerns about overvaluation in financial markets, which could lead to a self-fulfilling sell-off in advanced economies, and through global spill-overs induce a slowdown in emerging markets. If materialised, these risks have the power to reduce global GDP growth by a cumulative 5.4% over the 3-year horizon.
In our latest report extract, we provide you with an update on our latest macroeconomic forecasts for key economies and what these mean for our predictions for the global economy. Download Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2018 to stay ahead of risks and opportunities as they emerge on a macroeconomic basis.