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Euromonitor International is pleased to provide our blog readers with the executive summary of our new macroeconomic outlook, Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2018. The quarterly strategy briefing provides the latest Euromonitor International macroeconomic forecasts, assessment of the global economy, discussion of recent events and a deeper analysis of key economies.
The global economy gained speed in Q3 2017 and expanded by 3.9% year on year. The growth momentum that many economies experienced in 2017 is forecast to carry on to 2018. This is due to continuing improvement in consumer and business sentiment, recovery in international trade, supportive global monetary policy stance and reviving investments. We forecast global GDP to increase by 3.8% annually in 2018-2019.
GDP growth in advanced economies is expected to moderate and to stay close to 2.1% annually in 2018-2019, as a result of normalising monetary policies by central banks and more stable investment growth. Growth in emerging economies, on the other hand, is estimated to accelerate to 5.2% annually in 2018-2019 due to continuing recovery in commodity exporters. Emerging countries will account for around 76% of global growth.
However, for many major economies the economic recovery cycle may come to an end in 2019, restrained by slow productivity growth, lack of labour force, rising inflation and higher interest rates, as well as elevated debt levels. Geopolitical tensions, protectionism and crumbling international trade agreements pose additional risks to the growth trajectory of the world’s major economies, with a possibility of negative spill-overs across the regions and globally.
In our latest report extract, we provide you with an update on our latest macroeconomic forecasts for key economies and what these mean for our predictions for the global economy. Download Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2018 to stay ahead of risks and opportunities as they emerge on a macroeconomic basis.