Assessing Card Payment Growth for 2012
Emerging markets account for all of the slots on Euromonitor International’s list of the top 10 card payment growth markets for 2012. While this is certainly not a surprise, what is important to note is the shift happening among emerging markets for card payment leadership status. The BRICs’ long domination of the card payment growth storyline appears to be giving way a bit to the rise of powerful growth stories in markets such as Vietnam, Turkey and the Philippines. The BRICs may own the absolute volume advantage, but these markets possess compelling growth stories.
In Vietnam, pre-paid is expected to be the strongest category in the short term as closed loop transportation cards benefit from a move to modernize the transportation system. Even with the high growth of plastic, cash remains the most popular payment instrument. For 2012, Euromonitor expects cash to account for roughly 75% of all consumer payment volume.
Turkey, while positioned as the second highest growth market behind Vietnam, exhibits higher reliance on plastic than almost any other market on the list. Roughly 37% of all consumer payment volume in Turkey is attributed to plastic — with a major emphasis on credit cards.
Similar to Vietnam, pre-paid is expected to be one of the highest growth plastic instruments in the Philippines due, in part, to remittance cards.
While growth may reside with emerging markets, the impact of absolute volume tends to get buried. Out of the top 10 absolute card payment volume growth markets 2012-2016, emerging markets only occupy three positions (China, Turkey and Brazil).