These are the 10 most-popular articles focusing on world economies that Euromonitor International published in 2017.
The African continent in 2017 is expected to house some of the world’s fastest growing cities. This is largely thanks to an array of factors including the abundance of natural resources, increasing levels of foreign direct investment (FDI), a young population and the growth in internet penetration rates. Yet in light of the rapid rate of urbanisation, urban issues related to housing and city infrastructure will remain a key challenge for Africancities in 2017. The article aims to take a closer look at some of the fastest growing African cities forecasted for 2017 and forms part of the Economiesin 2017 Strategy Briefing which outlines the key trends for the year ahead.
Chinese GDP increased by 6.9% year-on-year during the first half of 2017, but is expected to slow down in the second half, leading to 6.6% growth for the whole year. Annual GDP growth is expected to decline towards 6% in 2018-2019, though consumption is still likely to increase by 7% annually due to the rebalancing of the economy away from investment.
China’s GDP growth, consumer confidence and other indicators of economic activity were somewhat better than expected in the first quarter of 2017. Therefore, we have upgraded our outlook, with GDP forecast to rise by 6.6% in 2017 and 6.1% in 2018. In its March 2017 National People’s Congress, the government reemphasized it willingness to accept moderate declines in growth in exchange for greater financial stability. Cuts in heavy industry production capacity are also expected to continue, though at a slower pace than in 2016.
Euromonitor International analysts predict 2017 will be marked by slowing growth in consumer expenditure in developed markets. With many of these countries struggling to raise productivity, weighed down by debt and ageing population, stagnation represents a threat. The Eurozone will continue to see anaemic growth, with a slowdown in all major economies next year.
Podcast: Sub-Saharan African economic growth is expected to pick up in 2017 after reaching the lowest level in 22 years in 2016. Growth will be driven by a stabilisation of commodity prices and improvements in the largest economies in the region. Euromonitor looks at the outlook for the three largest African markets of Nigeria, South Africa and Angola, which accounted for 55.2% of the region’s GDP in 2016, while also examining the key risk scenarios facing South Africa using our Macro Model.
Despite a slowing economy, Chinese consumers will continue to see one of the largest increases in spending, and expenditure in emerging and developing economies overall will grow by more than twice that of developed markets. Developing Asia markets, like China, India and Southeast Asia, are estimated to be the main driving forces. However, because of the big difference between economy recovery and consistent low price of primary commodities, the prediction of other regions is unbalanced.
Eurozone output increased by 0.4% in the last quarter of the year, with overall growth of 1.7% in 2016. Private sector sentiment has improved significantly since the summer of 2016, and is now close to pre-financial crisis levels.
Consumers enter 2017 to this backdrop of uncertainty. Over the course of the year, Euromonitor International is expecting consumer expenditure to rise by 2.3% in real terms, with every household saving US$3,609 on average. With the US still accounting for almost one in three dollars spent globally, consumer behaviour in the Trump era matters to the world.
We have kept the forecast for the US economy stable since February with 2% annual GDP growth in 2017-2018. Private sector confidence measures are significantly above average, and stock market prices have continued rising. With a 4.4% unemployment rate, labour markets also appear healthy on the surface. However, the actual performance of the economy in the first quarter of 2017 was below expectations.
Romania has continued to be one of the best performing economies in Europe. After gains of 3.8% in 2015, real GDP growth is expected to further accelerate, reaching 4.7% in 2016, making Romania the fastest growing nation in the European Union (EU) along with Ireland.