Euromonitor International is pleased to provide our blog readers with the executive summary of our new macroeconomic outlook, Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2017.
The quarterly strategy briefing provides the latest Euromonitor International macroeconomic forecasts, assessment of the global economy, discussion of recent events and a deeper analysis of key economies.
Global economic growth is gaining pace. Some major economies are witnessing consumer and business sentiment at levels unseen in several years. Financial markets have been on the rise, while Central Banks largely seem in no hurry to normalise interest rates and tone down the appetite for risk. In Q2 2017, global real GDP increased by 3.7% year on year, which marked quarterly growth unseen since 2014. In our baseline, we estimate the global economy to continue performing strongly in Q3 and close 2017 with 3.6% real GDP growth for the year, firming up to 3.7% in 2018.
We have upgraded our baseline real GDP growth forecasts for both advanced economies and emerging markets to 2.1% and 4.9%, respectively, in 2017. The Eurozone, Canada and Japan are exhibiting higher than expected growth. Economic recovery is gradually gaining momentum in Russia and Brazil.
The persistence of strong global performance is, however, not without downside risks, stemming mainly from political noise and the probability of more protectionism. Brexit negotiations continue without any sign of a much-needed breakthrough, and the prevailing uncertainty threatens to hold back the UK economy and business growth. NAFTA negotiations thus far have not yielded results either. Ending NAFTA and reverting to WTO trade rules could result in negative implications not only for Mexico and Canada, but also for the US.
In our latest report extract, we provide you with an update on our latest macroeconomic forecasts for key economies and what these mean for our predictions for the global economy. Download Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2017 to stay ahead of risks and opportunities as they emerge on a macroeconomic basis.