Euromonitor International is pleased to provide our blog readers with the executive summary of our new macroeconomic outlook, Global Economic Forecasts: Q3 2017.
The global economy started 2017 strong with real GDP growth gaining momentum and rising to 3.6% in Q1 2017. We have maintained our global real GDP growth forecast at 3.5% for 2017-2018. Despite standing above the annual 3.2% growth in 2016, the forecast is still considerably below the pre-crisis growth levels.
For advanced and emerging economies, economic activity is forecast to accelerate, reaching 2.0% and 4.7% growth, respectively, in 2017. Emerging markets, however, will remain a principal driver of the global economic growth, accounting for as much as 74% of the world’s real GDP expansion, and this share is predicted to surge further up to 79% by 2020.
Our latest macroeconomic outlook shows the previous uncertainty surrounding the global growth forecast receding since May 2017. The political risks have diminished in Europe, with the region rebounding more strongly than expected and populist parties performing worse than expected in a number of Eurozone elections, which suggests that the populist surge might be beginning to fade.
However, some of the most urgent global risks presently are stemming from the unexpected US policies, rising geopolitical tensions, uncertain outcome of Brexit negotiations, or the possibility of a sharper than estimated China growth slowdown. These changes could complicate the macroeconomic situation in major economies with negative spillovers to other countries and result in damage to their private confidence, investments and overall economic growth.
In our latest report extract, we provide you with an update on our latest macroeconomic forecasts for key economies and what these mean for our predictions for the global economy.
Download Global Economic Forecasts: Q3 2017 to stay ahead of risks and opportunities as they emerge on a macroeconomic basis.