The latest macroeconomic outlook Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2017 has been published on Economy, Finance and Trade page. The quarterly strategy briefing provides the latest Euromonitor International macroeconomic forecasts, assessment of global economy, discussion of recent events and a deeper analysis of key economies.
The global economy gained speed in Q4 2016 and expanded by 3.3% year-on-year. The growth momentum is anticipated to persist throughout 2017. We expect the world GDP growth to pick up from 3.2% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018.
Emerging and developing economies continue to account for most of global growth. Their economic activity has accelerated due to rebound in commodity prices and increasing global demand. The GDP growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to gradually rise from 4.4% in 2016 towards 5% in 2018 on the back of higher commodity prices and recovery in commodity exporters like Brazil and Russia.
In advanced economies consumer confidence has increased notably in the second half of 2016 and early 2017. Financial markets and business sentiment have also improved. The US and Eurozone seem to be entering a more robust recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2011 Eurozone crisis. Yet aging population and feeble productivity growth will keep constraining the outlook of advanced economies in a medium term and GDP growth is forecast to stay around 1.8% over 2017-2018.
Overall global macroeconomic risks have declined since February 2017. However, advanced economies remain exposed to the risk of economic stagnation due to slow labour productivity growth and high political uncertainty. While Emmanuel Macron’s presidential win in France is good news for Europe, the populist wave hasn’t gone away. Emerging markets remain vulnerable to tighter global financing conditions and China continues facing the risk of credit downturn as a result of slow progress on controlling financial risks.