With the Referendum only a day away, Euromonitor’s Brexit scenario for the impact on inbound arrivals to the UK indicates a potential fall in demand of over 2.3 million visitors for key markets alone over 2015/2020, amounting to a decline of over 5% of total arrivals, based on GDP declines in source markets.
Caroline Bremner, Head of Travel at Euromonitor International comments: “Destination branding and consumer desire to travel would be hit hard by the uncertainty Brexit would entail in the short to midterm. EU source markets, such as Ireland, Germany and France, would experience the sharpest forecast change in volume. However, an expected slump in the pound after Brexit would help to entice visitors to the UK.”
Potential Impact of a Brexit Scenario on UK Inbound Arrivals by Key Source Market 2015/2020
Note: The incremental difference in terms of arrivals from origin countries to the UK was based on the forecast performance of inbound tourism before and after Brexit, built before the Brexit vote result. Euromonitor International’s Global Macro Model shows that many country of origins’ economic performance measured in GDP will be downgraded following a Brexit vote, which has a corresponding knock-on effect on tourism demand. We applied correlations displayed between tourism demand and country economic performance over the historic period to gauge the potential difference in arrivals from key markets to the UK. It is important to note that the forecast data was built before the official vote for the UK to leave the EU, and does not take into full account the subsequent sharp depreciation of the pound after the vote was delivered. We will publish new post-Brexit forecasts over the coming months.
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