As we explore in our global briefing, “The Impact of Demographics and Income on Toys Spending,” although the world’s child population has been declining, this will be a short-lived phenomenon. The trend towards smaller families in many markets ties in with other cultural and income shifts that actually stand the global toys market in good stead. Our briefing analyses two key determinants of demand – demographic and income trends – to understand their impact on toys sales in the future.
- Shrinking global child population is a short-lived phenomenon
The global child population has been declining, largely due to falling family sizes. However, this is a transitory trend and the child population is set to start increasing again.
- Largest 0-14 year-old populations
In absolute terms, Asia Pacific and Africa and Middle East have the largest 0-14 year-old populations. Conversely they also have relatively low spend per child.
- Attractive toys markets: China vs Russia
China has by far the most households with an annual disposable income of over US$10,000; however, the number of 0-14 year olds is expected to remain static over 2013-2018. This suggests good fundamentals for toys growth particularly in urban areas. Between 2013-2018, Russia will record the highest increase in its 0-14 year-old population, translating into more than 2.5 million more children, while having the fourth biggest middle class.
- Spend per child vs number of children per household
In countries where the average number of children per household is above one, spending on traditional toys and games per child does not exceed US$70 in a given year.
- Later families and working women
Overall, the older the average age of women at childbirth, the higher the spend on traditional toys and games per child. As modern mothers continue to work, for various reasons, the limits on parental time require products that can fill this gap. In almost all countries where the average age of women at birth is high, spend per child on traditional toys and games exceeded US$320 in 2013.
- Single parent households
Single parent households tend to be among the poorest, creating a need for cheaper products. Low-priced, high-volume toys tend to find success in markets where single parent households are more common.