Euromonitor International is pleased to announce the introduction of forecasts for our key monthly and quarterly economic indicators. The database has been expanded to include one-year forecast data (12 months for monthly data or 4 quarters for quarterly data). Monthly/quarterly data is also now fully integrated into Passport’s data tree and covers 69 indicators and 58 countries in total.
Short-term forecasts are hugely important in these uncertain times as highlighted by the volatility in world markets following the global economic downturn of 2008-2009 and subsequent sovereign debt crisis. Euromonitor’s forecasts will help to look into the future and understand how commodity price fluctuations, changes in economic growth, government expenditure policy, unemployment or consumer confidence will affect consumer markets and business environments in the year ahead. This data will enable businesses to strategise and adapt to changing economic conditions and consumer sentiment.
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- Global oil prices have eased since 2011 as world growth has slowed and demand weakened. Euromonitor International forecasts that the Europe Brent spot price will be US$105 per barrel in March 2012 compared to US$114 per barrel a year earlier. However, the Europe Brent spot price will remain at elevated levels averaging US$108 per barrel over 2012 owing to improving economic conditions in some major energy consuming countries such as USA, heightened uncertainty in the Middle East, home to some of the world’s largest oil producers, as well as tight supply. Any renewed spikes in oil prices will hit business profits and squeeze disposable incomes;
- Although US unemployment rates have dropped since 2011, unemployment is projected to remain at higher than pre-crisis levels throughout 2012. Euromonitor forecasts unemployment to average 8.4% of the economically active population in 2012 (seasonally adjusted terms). This will continue to subdue demand in the world’s largest consumer market and will be a key theme in the presidential election campaigns ahead of polling in November 2012;
US Consumer Confidence and Unemployment Rate: January 2010 – December 2012
First Quarter 1966=100 / % of economically active population
Source: Euromonitor International from trade sources/national statistics/ International Labour Organisation
Note: Non-seasonally adjusted data. The Consumer Sentiment Index reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead and is a crucial indicator for near term sales for companies. Michigan computes its index by taking the difference between the positive and negative percentages for each question and then adding 100 to each. These are summed and then divided by a factor representing the base year, 1966.
- Euromonitor International forecasts that the eurozone will be in recession in 2012, despite the agreement of a second bailout for Greece in February 2012. Severe austerity targets across the region will weigh on economic growth potential as will ongoing uncertainty about Greece and sovereign debt contagion. The worries about double-dip recessions will continue in the first half of 2012. Euromonitor forecasts that all the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) will continue their recessions or slip back into recession by the end of Q1 2012. Euromonitor also forecasts that the UK will not avoid the fall-out from the eurozone debt crisis and will slip back into recession in Q1 2012 with a forecast real GDP contraction of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter after a decline of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2011 (seasonally adjusted terms);
- Following concerns of overheating in China, the world’s largest emerging market, inflation has declined since 2011 as commodity prices have eased and government measures targeting inflation reduction have kicked in. Euromonitor forecasts that annual inflation will continue to ease to 1.8% by December 2012 from 4.1% a year earlier, helping to increase consumer purchasing power.
Monthly and quarterly statistics are available to Countries & Consumers subscribers on the Economy, Finance and Trade page. Definitions and source information can be found in the Help document.
Use monthly and quarterly data to:
- Keep track of economic developments as soon as they happen
- Compare the economic performance of your countries of interest
- Build an understanding of the economic fundamentals of an economy
- Monitor changes in commodity prices
- Look at forecasts for the year ahead