May 19, 2015

The Paradox of Choice in Soft Drinks

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In a world with more choices than ever before, effective curation is key. This podcast discusses the growing importance of curation in soft drinks. While consumers demand choice, they also seek guidance, and brands which can provide this—whether they are retailers, foodservice operators, or manufacturers—can reap significant long-term benefits.

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Deflation in Advanced Economies: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

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Analyst Insight by Media Eghbal - Head of Countries' Analysis

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Since 2014, or the threat of negative inflation (falling prices for goods and services) has been a persistent problem for some of the world’s largest developed economies. Euromonitor International forecasts that 16 countries globally (at the time of writing) will register deflation overall in 2015. These include Italy and Spain, the third and fourth largest economies in the eurozone. A further 44 countries worldwide are projected to post inflation rates of less than 1.0% to zero in 2015, including France, Germany, UK and the USA.

The sharp decline in world oil prices (and the consequent fall in energy and petrol prices) since 2014 is a major driver of this trend, while in some countries such as the UK, food price falls have also contributed. A stronger pound and US dollar have made imports cheaper for domestic consumers in the UK and USA, bringing further downward pressure on consumer prices. There has been much scaremongering about the spectre of deflation but in some situations, decreasing prices can be a sign of a competitive economy. Understanding the economic context of deflation is key.

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Four Factors Influencing the Seafood Market in Western Europe

Euromonitor's research has identified four key areas driving growth and product demand in fresh and packaged fish in Western Europe. This video discusses consumer education, distribution, health positioning and sustainability in more depth as they relate to the future of this industry. Watch the video for complete insights.

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May 18, 2015

Digital Trends Podcast: May 2015

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This podcast discusses which countries are the world's top internet performers, looking at internet penetration rates, digital business innovation, and mobile internet access. Looking forward, we expect markets in the Middle East to see major growth in the digital economy as the world moves away from oil dependance. Listen to the podcast for complete insights.

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American Express's Plenti Launch

Kendrick SandsAnalyst Insight by Kendrick Sands - Senior Consumer Finance Analyst

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The first US coalition loyalty programme which allows point transfers across companies was recently launched by American Express. The initial merchant partners include AT&T, Exxon, Macy’s, Mobil, Nationwide, Rite Aid, Direct Energy, Enterprise and Hulu. The innovative reward platform has a variety of unique selling points and has potential for American Express to reach a wide range of additional US consumers. Following the loss of the network’s co-branded exclusivity agreement with Costco as well as JetBlue, the network faces a significant decline in total processed payment value in 2016. To offset this decline the network has looked to other co-branded agreements and pre-paid and digital platforms. The acquisition of Loyalty Partner in 2011 by American Express for US$685 million sharpened the network’s focus on international loyalty programmes and has since proved successful in Germany, Poland and India. The network has long been known to offer lucrative benefits to its affluent and corporate clientele and has been aggressively trying to capture consumers outside of these segments with limited success in recent years. The Plenti platform, if additional merchant partners are included, could have the potential to do so.

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Which Emerging Market Economies Would Be Most at Risk from a US Slowdown?

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With the USA posting significantly lower-than-expected real GDP growth in the first quarter, struggling with low productivity and facing a widening trade deficit, the global economy’s chief engine of growth appears to be more fragile than previously thought. A US slowdown, should it occur, would hurt global economic growth and many are concerned about the impact on emerging markets in particular. According to our CAMI Macro Model, the five most affected emerging markets from a US slowdown in 2015 would be Vietnam, Mexico, India, China and Russia.

Potential Impact of a US Slowdown on Emerging Markets: 2015

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Source: Euromonitor International CAMI Macro Model

Note: US slowdown refers to a 1 year ahead net effect of 0.5 percentage points from Q1 2015 with a moderate deterioration in credit markets and borrowing conditions and a moderate decline in business and consumer confidence.

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May 17, 2015

Bravofly Rumbo Challenges Global OTA Players in European Market

Angelo RossiniAnalyst Insight by Angelo Rossini - Online Travel Analyst

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In the online travel agency sector, which is seeing steady growth but also increasing competition, some regional players with ambitious expansion plans are emerging in Europe and Asia.

The Bravofly Rumbo Group has, in the last three years, turned from a national into a leading regional player in the OTA sector in Europe. Its recent acquisition of Lastminute.com, a popular OTA brand in Europe, gives the company the opportunity to expand its sales from online air bookings to the more profitable online hotel bookings. To continue to grow, however, the Bravofly Rumbo Group will need to be able to compete successfully with the two global giants in this sector, Expedia and Priceline, which have been constantly growing over the past 10 years at the expense of other travel intermediaries, but also of direct bookings, through being at the forefront of technological innovation.

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What Other Companies Can Learn from XiaoMi

Weeteck_looAnalyst Insight by Wee Teck Loo - Head of Consumer Electronics

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XiaoMi launched its first smartphone designed for the Indian market in April. The new model, Mi 4i, like all XiaoMi products, is equipped with high-end specifications at an attractive price. In the same month, Samsung reported a 30% decline in y-o-y operating profits for the first quarter of 2015.  Samsung’s mobile division operating profits nosedived 57% in 2015 compared to the same quarter in 2014.

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Adapting Hot Drinks Brands to Fit Multi-Channel African Retailing

Howard TelfordAnalyst Insight by Howard Telford - Senior Beverages Analyst

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The dual development of modern retail channels and sustained prominence of traditional points of sale are important variables influencing packaged hot drinks in Africa. As the chart below demonstrates, there is a great disparity among African markets in the development of modern outlets in hot drinks retailing, which include supermarkets and convenience stores. Small, independent and informal retailers that serve low-income consumers still constitute the majority of drinks retailing volume in the continent, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This traditional channel of sale demands flexibility in terms of price, package size, promotion and delivery in order to reach the vast majority of low-income African consumers. However the uneven but significant growth of modern channels in urban hubs must also play into the complex multichannel strategy of hot drinks brands in Africa.  Big and small, multipack and single-serve, affordable and premium: is it possible for new, foreign entrants to build mass appeal in such a disparate retailing environment?

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Source: Euromonitor International

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May 16, 2015

Interest in Asian Cuisines is Driving New Concept and Menu Trends

ElizabethFriendAnalyst Insight by Elizabeth Friend - Senior Consumer Foodservice Analyst

Asian flavours are growing increasingly popular all over the world, due in part to rapid growth in Asian markets, but also to rising interest in bold, spicy flavours and exciting new foodservice experiences. Asian concepts in particular, especially those that extend beyond typical Chinese food or sushi, are a growing trend in major urban areas, offering consumers more nuanced ways to enjoy Asian cuisine.

Asia-based chains are expanding quickly

A portion of this trend is being driven by the simple fact that Asian consumers happen to like Asian food. As Asia is home to many of the largest foodservice markets in the world—and unquestionably the home of the largest upcoming growth in absolute terms—Asian trends have become global trends. In fact, 54% of the global value growth from 2013-2018 will come from Asia Pacific, with that percentage reaching as high as 72% in the full-service categories. Add to that the fact that many of the region’s most advanced markets have evolved to the point of giving rise to their own home-grown chains, many of which are modern, well-funded, and looking to expand beyond regional borders, and this has meant that Asian concepts are growing quickly both at home and abroad. This has led to diversification in the category in terms of competitors and culinary influences, with plenty of growth to come in the years ahead.

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