Analyst Insight by Daniel Solomon - Economist
The global economic outlook for 2015-2016 presents a mixed picture. The Eurozone’s recovery remains weak, with Italy re-entering a recession at the end of 2014 and slower than expected growth in Germany and France. Eurozone growth is expected to reach 1.1% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. Japan’s economy is expected to barely grow by 0.3% in 2015 after entering a technical recession in the 3rd quarter of 2014. The US and the UK are expected to continue their relatively strong expansion in 2015, with GDP growth of 3.3% and 2.5% respectively.
China is expected to slow down towards an average growth rate of 6% in 2017-2021. India is expected to rebound in 2015-2016 towards an annual growth rate of 6.4% in 2017-2021. Meanwhile our outlook for Brazil has worsened yet again with 0.5% growth in 2015, followed by below average growth of 1.7% in 2016. Russia is now expected to spend 2015-2016 in recession with output falling by 3.8% in 2015 and by another 0.4% in 2016, and the risks are heavily tilted to the downside.
In the rest of this report, we take a closer look at the economies of the US, Eurozone, China, Japan, Russia and the UK. In this report, we have also started to publish long term potential growth rate forecasts for 2022-2030.