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December 18, 2014

Diplomatic Normalisation Promises Cuban Evolution for US Cigar Market

Shane_MacGuillAnalyst Insight by Shane MacGuill - Tobacco Analyst

The almost total thawing out of diplomatic relations between the US and Cuba, announced yesterday, 17th December by President Barack Obama, could lead to the smouldering of Cuban cigars from coast to coast in the US$8 billion dollar US cigar market. The biggest winners from the relaxing of the trade embargo with Cuba are likely to be Imperial Tobacco plc, the world’s 4th largest international tobacco company and part owner, with the Cuban government of the state cigar company Corporacion Habanos and the US tobacco specialist stores which currently supply around 40% of the country’s cigars and through which high price point Cuban offerings will largely be distributed.

Imperial Tobacco inherited  a 50% holding in the Cuban state cigar company Corporacion Habanos through its purchase of the French-Spanish tobacco giant Altadis in 2007. It is thought that the company, which distributes the Cohiba and Montecristo premium cigar brands outside the US and non-Cuban brands such as Romeo y Julieta within it, has been anticipating the relaxation of the trade embargo for some time and has plans to ramp up production by 50% to meet increased demand. However, in an analyst briefing in November 2014, Imperial CEO Alison Cooper made reference to some supply issues in Cuba which may or may not impact this target:

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December 14, 2014

Which Toys Will Steal Christmas This Year?

Rob WalkerAnalyst Insight by Rob Walker - Contributing Analyst

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There is a famous epiphany at the end of Dr Seuss’ children’s classic How the Grinch Stole Christmas, when the Grinch, rather like Ebenezer Scrooge, feels compelled to see Christmas from an entirely new perspective. “Maybe Christmas, he thought, doesn’t come from a store. Maybe Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more!”

It’s heart-warming stuff. And yes, it is that wonderful time of the year.

Like it or not, though, for millions of children around the world Christmas does come from a store. And toymakers and toy retailers must be thanking their lucky stars that it does. The festive season fuels a huge chunk of their annual sales (as much as half in key Western markets). Put simply, it makes or breaks the year.

So, who and what do we think will steal the show this Christmas time? Here are some products and trends to watch.

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November 26, 2014

Product Development Trends in the North American Pet Food Market

Euromonitor continues to explore product development trends on the Canadian and US pet food market. Having looked at locally sourced, ethically sourced and “free from” trends in the previous video, this second videocasts looks at product development in alternative and mixed proteins on the North American pet food marketplace.

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November 22, 2014

Heat-not-Burn Launches Open a New Front for the Future of Tobacco

Shane_MacGuillAnalyst Insight by Shane Mac Guill - Senior Tobacco Analyst

One of the central plotlines for the tobacco industry in 2015 will be the evolution of large manufacturer responses to the steadily increasing prevalence of e-cigarettes and their efforts to wrestle back control of the future incarnation of the cigarette. This week had the feeling of a watershed moment in that ongoing narrative as the potential silver bullet for tobacco manufacturers, heat-not-burn technology, took a further step into the minds and mouths of consumers with major announcements from Philip Morris International on its iQOS platform and Reynolds American on the launch of a specific heat-not-burn brand, Revo.

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November 20, 2014

The Recovery from the Global Financial Crisis of 2008: Missing in Action

Daniel SolomonAnalyst Insight by Daniel Solomon - Economist

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The speed of the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis has been unusually slow. The slow recovery is a symptom of the permanent decline in GDP following a financial crisis, since the economy never fully rebounds from the initial recession.  We estimate long term output losses from the crisis ranging from almost none in Germany to almost 20% in Italy and Spain. This article highlights several factors behind the slow recovery and the large long term effects of the crisis:

  • The financial crisis made the economy more vulnerable to other negative shocks.

  • Trend growth may have been slowing down before the crisis.

  • Financial crises lead to big drops in labour productivity that take a long time to reverse.

Figure 1: GDP Per Working Age Person in Advanced Economies since 2007

Source: Euromonitor Macro Model and International Statistics

Note: 2007 level normalised to 1 for all countries. Forecast starts in 2014.

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November 19, 2014

Going Vegan for Weight Loss and Heart Health

Simone_BarokeAnalyst Insight by Simone Baroke - Contributing Analyst

Can a diet totally devoid of animal protein be healthy for humans who are, by design, omnivores? Common sense would suggest not, but research begs to differ. A new study is just out, attesting to the fact that a stint of vegan eating boosts both heart health and weight loss, and without imposing restrictions on caloric intake. Could the annual January diet craze be in for a vegan overhaul? This would indeed be music to the ears of purveyors of carbohydrate foods, may they be potato growers, bakery manufacturers or noodle bars.

Healthier in just one week

Rarely has a diet come under such sustained and fervent criticism as the vegan diet. Not enough iron, zero vitamin B12, too little protein, lack of variety and, perish the thought, no dairy – surely this can’t be a healthy way to live?

However, plenty of evidence, much of it gleaned from population studies that reach back decades, suggests otherwise. For example, there is the oft-quoted Danish example, where, due to post-WW1 rationing, animal protein, fats and alcohol were severely restricted, forcing the population to subsist largely on potatoes, bread, barley and vegetables. As a result, the country recorded the lowest mortality rate from non-infectious chronic disease (this includes cardiovascular disease) in its entire history.

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November 17, 2014

The Impact of Black Friday and Cyber Monday on Retailing, Consumer Electronics and Toys and Games

As the 2014 holiday buying season approaches, US Research Analysts David McGoldrick, Matt Hudak and Tim Barrett discuss their insights into the impact of country-wide 24 hour shopping days on the retailing industry and on consumer product categories.

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Fireball Whiskey Recall: Putting Out Fire?

Spiros_MalandrakisAnalyst Insight by Spiros Malandrakis - Senior Alcoholic Drinks Analyst

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As the saccharine tide of flavoured vodkas in the US begins to finally subside, flavoured whiskies are leading the charge for the taste buds of millennials, female drinkers and young professionals searching for the next trending shot – from the nation’s bars to the twittersphere.

There have been few brands that can rival Fireball’s explosive growth trajectory, pioneering confidence and impeccable timing. Securing an impressive 14% share of other liqueur volumes sold in the US in just 4 short years, the brand is actively blazing a trail for flavour sophistication initiatives across the spirits category while burning down decades long taboos in the process. Last week’s stunning public admission that in its US formula Fireball contains propylene glycol (food grade quality of one of the ingredients also present in antifreeze) worked like an anti-climactic fire extinguisher. And it will inevitably reignite the debate around the need for more clarity in alcoholic drinks’ ingredients and formulation while undermining the quality perceptions of the entire nascent segment.

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November 11, 2014

Will SodaStream's Re-Focus Finally Expand Sales?

JonasFelicianoAnalyst Insight by Jonas Feliciano - Senior Beverages Analyst

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After a third-quarter earnings call revealed a net income decline of 42%, SodaStream acknowledged the error in positioning its line of machines and syrups as “home soda makers”. Amidst the fast decline of carbonate sales in the US, the company is instead aligning itself to the growth of bottled water, hoping to entice consumers with healthier and more natural products. This change in strategic direction could pay major dividends as consumers continue to look beyond carbonates and beyond the big brands for their soft drink purchases. While SodaStream’s line of Sparkling Naturals is a good start, embracing less sweet and more complex flavours popularised by small brands like Sparkling Ice and LaCroix could finally see the Wall Street darling justify its high initial stock prices with robust sales.

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November 6, 2014

Euromonitor to Speak at SNAXPO 2015



Event: Snaxpo 2015

Dates: March 28-31, 2015

Location: Orlando, Florida

Event Description: The world's largest, most comprehensive trade show devoted exclusively to the international snack food industry is heading back to Florida in 2015. Orlando is an ideal destination to bring together owners, executives and buyers from every segment of the industry around the world. Come take advantage of a little sun, a little fun, and a lot of exciting ways to build new business, generate quality leads and promote your brand – especially as an exhibitor, sponsor or both. Whether you're a small start-up or a multi-national corporation, with a strong presence at SNAXPO, customers will see you as a category leader, committed to their success and dedicated to advancing the snack food industry.

Website: http://snaxpo.com/

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Recent Posts

Diplomatic Normalisation Promises Cuban Evolution for US Cigar Market

Which Toys Will Steal Christmas This Year?

Product Development Trends in the North American Pet Food Market

Heat-not-Burn Launches Open a New Front for the Future of Tobacco

The Recovery from the Global Financial Crisis of 2008: Missing in Action

Going Vegan for Weight Loss and Heart Health

The Impact of Black Friday and Cyber Monday on Retailing, Consumer Electronics and Toys and Games

Fireball Whiskey Recall: Putting Out Fire?

Will SodaStream's Re-Focus Finally Expand Sales?

Euromonitor to Speak at SNAXPO 2015