Analyst Insight by Pavel Marceux - Technology, Communications and Media Analyst
Euromonitor International has identified the top three emerging Internet markets in 2014, based on growth rates in annual digital indicators such as online adspend, e-commerce, Internet users and mobile Internet subscriptions. The online markets to look out for in 2014 are Vietnam, Chile and Iran, as improved local telecom infrastructure, growing IT literacy and greater adoption of new technological platforms are driving more consumers to the web. Improved conditions for the growth of domestic Internet start-ups, clearer regulatory oversight regarding web commerce and cheaper costs of telecom services are allowing more businesses to launch or expand their online offerings.
E-Commerce Value and Internet Users in Vietnam, Iran and Chile: 2014
Source: Euromonitor International from trade sources/national statistics/International Telecommunications Union/OECD
Another year, another big Nissin move. Following joint ventures with the Turkish conglomerate Yildiz Holding and Kenyan JKUT University in 2013, Nissin is now eyeing the Maghreb. The Japanese noodle giant recently announced plans to introduce instant noodles into Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia through the establishment of a local subsidiary. Given the declining population and stagnant economy in Japan, it comes as no great surprise that Nissin is looking for growth abroad. With a combination of rising incomes, buoyant populations and steady demand for wheat, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) should be a boom area for noodles. However, MENA, which boasts the highest noodles growth globally is also the region with one of the lowest consumption levels. If Nissin wants to rejuvenate its sales by reaching out to MENA, it first needs to convince the Maghrebis that they should slurp Japanese noodles instead of continuing to spoon couscous.
Analyst Insight by Justinas Liuima - Industry Analyst
Global oil prices are on an upward trend thanks to economic recovery in the US and Europe and political tension between Russia and Ukraine. This is good news for Saudi Arabia, one of the largest oil exporters globally, as revenue for the state budget grows. In addition, rising oil prices could support the diversification of Saudi Arabia’s economy while politics could open up new markets in Europe.
Economic Recovery and Tension in Ukraine Put Upward Pressure on Oil Prices
Global oil prices have continued to show an upward tendency since March 2014. The price of Brent crude stood at nearly US$110 per barrel in May, while futures for June rose to nearly US$109 per barrel. Growth can be attributed to economic recovery in the US and Europe, while tension between Russia and Ukraine and possible military intervention have also had an influence.
Analyst Insight by Media Eghbal - Country Insight Managing Editor
Although the world population is ageing, Euromonitor International estimates that half the people on the planet are under the age of 30 in 2014. Emerging and developing countries stand out as home to a massive 89.8% of the global population under the age of 30, up from 85.3% in 1980 and we expect this ratio to remain stable until 2030. The 0-29 age bracket is an important one for marketers in terms of the consumer spending potential for families with children, young adults and those entering working-age who will experience discretionary spending for the first time. Children and young consumers have an appetite for the latest technologies and can quickly adapt to modern trends. They are more digitally tuned in and switched on than any generation previously and keener to interact with brands directly. However, per capita discrepancies in the spending potential of younger consumers in emerging vs developed markets will continue to dictate growth opportunities and strategies. This age group is also vital in order to assess the labour market potential across countries and whether the working pool is growing or shrinking, which will have an impact on skills availability and consumer spending prospects.
Analyst Insight by Nadejda Popova - Travel and Tourism Analyst
Much has been said about Asia Pacific and its importance as an emerging region to the global economy and the wider travel and tourism industry. Asia Pacific is expected to record real GDP growth of 5.7% in 2014, while its population will reach 4.4 billion by 2030, representing an increase of 15.6% on 2010, driven by huge increases in the over 60-year-old population.
By 2024, consumer expenditure in the region will also top US$4,000 per capita (in 2013 prices). This part of the world obviously has its best performers, such as the Philippines, which has the region’s largest number of foreign citizens (12.8 million in 2010), and Karachi, expected to be the region’s fastest growing and biggest city over 2010-2030, attributed to economic migration as rural inhabitants seek employment there. The Philippines’ real GDP growth is expected to come in at 6.5% in 2014, and this rate is expected to be maintained in the medium term. Growth will be driven by reconstruction following Typhoon Haiyan and consumer spending, driven in part by inflows of remittances.
Location: Dubai International Convention & Exhibition Centre
Description: Beautyworld Middle East is the largest international trade fair for beauty products, hair, fragrances and wellbeing in the Middle East and one of the top 3 exhibitions worldwide. A truly international event, Beautyworld Middle East offers trade visitors the convenience of meeting over 1,000+ companies face to face over three days, for serious business. Now in its 19th year, the exhibition has played a vital role in the growth and development of the industry, with a solid representation of global products and brands.
Home care companies in the United Arab Emirates are seeking new ways to position products as environmentally friendly and sustainable. Consequentially, positioning products as environmentally friendly can also mean reducing pack sizes and packaging costs. Unilever led the way for this trend releasing liquid laundry detergent concentrate in smaller pack sizes in the Middle East, and in the next several years concentrated liquids are expected to perform well across all of home care.
Analyst Insight by Nadejda Popova - Senior Travel and Tourism Analyst
New violence across much of Iraq in 2013 has stifled any recovery for the travel and tourism industry. Unrest ignited by the crisis in nearby Syria and political conflict have brought Iraq back into the world news. And yet, despite ongoing violence across much of the country, there are pockets of safety in Iraq, such as the Kurdistan area, which is completely removed from the war zone. Indeed, Erbil was chosen as Arab Tourism Capital 2014 by the Arab Tourism Committee, beating Beirut in Lebanon, Taif in Saudi Arabia and Sharjahn in the UAE. However, although Erbil is attracting a number of GCC and Arab businesses, it will prove very challenging for the country to attract more diverse nationalities long term, due to the lingering negative image of Iraq, but also strong competition from GCC countries, which have already established a good track record in the region.
Although casual dining has been a long-struggling category in consumer foodservice, the niche segment of premium casual dining has performed particularly well in recent years. Premium casual includes chains such as The Cheesecake Factory, Bonefish Grill and BJ’s. The Cheesecake Factory continues to be a highlight with a strong presence in the US and recent expansion to countries including the UAE, Mexico and Brazil. The chain has consistently outperformed its peers in recent years and is expected to continue to grow worldwide over the next five years.
Location: Seminar Theatre, Dubai International Convention and Exhibition Centre
Presentation : Kinda Chebib, Research Analyst at Euromonitor International, will offer a presentation on the Consumer Trends and Forces Driving Change in the Travel Industry globally and in the Middle East.
The global economy is on the mend and arrivals grew again in 2013 at a rate of 4%, reaching record numbers of over one billion world-wide. The Middle East and Africa demonstrated the highest growth despite continued instability and Asia, especially China, remains a key driver of demand. As smartphones become an indispensable part of modern-day life, travel companies offer consumers an increasing number of services for purchasing, researching and experiencing travel. Online and mobile developments enable consumers to bypass traditional distribution, with the sharing economy going from strength to strength.
Against a backdrop of conflict and unrest in parts of the Middle East, the region’s tourism performance is in a state of stagnation with pockets of growth in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. One of the big success stories is the Big Three airlines and their march to global domination. Dubai pins its hopes on Dubai Expo 2020, whilst Egypt continues to bounce along the bottom affected by ongoing instability.
WTM Vision continues to offer an unlimited learning experience and this year will focus on presenting the latest travel industry research findings from Euromonitor International. The Travel Industry Forecast Review 2014 provides a global analysis of the travel and tourism industry for the year ahead and includes a focus on the Middle East, highlighing the major challenges facing the region and potential areas for growth.