Analyst Insight by Media Eghbal, Country Insight Managing Editor, Euromonitor International
Euromonitor International predicts that in 2020, emerging markets will dominate the top five largest economies.The most symbolic shift will be when China overtakes the USA as the largest economy globally. This Q&A will answer some of the key questions about what our forecasts of the world’s largest economies mean and what implications this will have for global consumer market development. Emerging economies are driving global economic growth but advanced economies will retain a competitive advantage with higher per capita incomes and greater consumer market expenditure, while governments in developing countries face challenges in keeping up with the pace of economic growth.
Euromonitor predicts that the world’s five largest economies in 2020, measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms (PPP) will be:
Source: Euromonitor International Euromonitor International from national statistics/Eurostat/OECD/UN/International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics (IFS)
The three biggest emerging economies will account for around 30.0% of global GDP in PPP terms in 2020 compared to 23.5% in 2012 when there were just two emerging markets amongst the five largest economies (1. USA 2. China 3. India 4. Japan 5. Germany). The most discernible shift in global power towards emerging market economies is expected to take place in 2017 when China will become the world’s largest economy.