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January 23, 2015

How Does the Sharp Decline in Oil Prices Impact Oil Exporters?

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Global oil prices have fallen sharply since mid-2014 and are expected to stay low during the course of 2015. For oil exporters, this leads to significant shortfalls in government revenues, rising unemployment, falling income and expenditure, potential economic recession as well as increased risk of social instability. However, it can also present an opportunity for oil exporters to enhance efforts to diversify their economies.

Crude Oil Average Spot Prices: Q1 2014 – Q4 2015

Average Price of Crude Oil

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

Note: Data for Q1 2015 onwards are forecast 

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December 26, 2014

The Consequences of Indonesia’s Nickel Export Ban

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Exports of Nickel Ore were banned in Indonesia at the beginning of 2014, cutting off almost 18 percent of supply for the global market. Somewhat surprisingly, this ban actually led to a drop in nickel prices due to market preparation for the ban. Euromonitor expects prices of nickel ore to recover next year amid a proposed ban of nickel exports from The Philippines.

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December 16, 2014

European Banks in 2015: What to Expect?

Vita KrasodomskyteAnalyst Insight by Vita Krasodomskyte - Industrial Analyst

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The EU’s monetary intermediation industry still remains sluggish, growing by 2-3% per year in 2013-2014. Increasing regulation, slow economic growth and rather weak financial health is projected to remain among the major challenges for the European financial institutions in 2015.

 

Increasing European Central Bank role

Eurozone countries, in order to improve their banking activities, have established the banking union with common regulation and, by November 2014, the ECB had become the supervisor of all banks in the Eurozone area (around 6,000 in total). Increasing regulation is expected to continue to be seen in 2015 as well. The European Banking Authority will be increasingly focusing on risk assessment, which will remain a key priority for the European banking industry. Moreover, the development of the Single Rulebook and growing regulation in such areas as recovery and resolution, consumer protection and financial innovation will also continue throughout 2015.

EU banks still suffer from the slow economy

Economic growth is projected to remain weak over 2015. Total GDP in the EU is expected to only grow by less than 2% in 2015, thus further creating strong pressure on the financial market. Restructuring will be one of the key factors for an improvement in the performance of banks. In order to increase profitability, banks will have to sell capital-intensive loss-making units and focus more on just a few of the most profitable market segments.

Nearly 20% of EU’s largest banks fail the stress test

A total of 24 out of the 123 largest EU banks failed the stress test, coordinated by the European Banking Authority to measure the financial health of the EU banks by the end of 2013. The results of the stress test, published in October 2014, showed that the EU banks had a capital shortfall of close to EUR25 billion, meaning that close to 20% of the largest EU banks are not fully prepared for possible difficult economic conditions. As a result, following the instruction to cover the shortfalls, the year 2015 will remain challenging for the EU banks seeking to improve their financial health and cover their capital shortfalls.

 

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December 14, 2014

Asia Pacific Recap: Key Events that Shaped the Region in 2014

Euromonitor analysts discuss the key events impacting foreign investment, population, tourism, tax rates, social media, politics, consumer confidence and other factors impacting consumer spending trends in Asia Pacific countries moving into 2015. Watch the video for complete insights.

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December 12, 2014

Global Energy Consumption – 5 Key Facts

Global primary energy consumption increased by 11.0% between 2008-2013. Watch the complete video for insights into regional and industrial energy trends.

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November 16, 2014

China and India: The Powerhouses of the Asia Pacific Cocoa Market

Helen ReavellAnalyst Insight by Helen Reavell - Contributing Analyst

Asia Pacific is currently the third largest region for cocoa ingredients (liquor, butter and powder) worldwide after Western Europe and North America; however, it is set to become the second largest region, overtaking North America by 2017, with consumption exceeding 688,000 tonnes. Regional sales are dominated by China, which accounted for 40% of volume sales in 2013, while the second largest market is India, with 11% of volume. Both China and India have seen strong growth in the cocoa ingredients in recent years, with China posting an average annual growth rate of 6% and India 16% over 2008-2103. Similarly, forecast rates are also strong at 5% and 11% over 2013-2018. However, this growth is being driven by quite different consumption patterns in these two countries.

Cocoa ingredients in India, more closely matches that of the worldwide market. Cocoa liquor takes the largest share at 43% (37% worldwide), cocoa butter 29% (33%) and cocoa powder 27% (30%). Meanwhile, China is quite different, with cocoa liquor only accounting for 23% of total cocoa volumes, cocoa butter 17%, but cocoa powder reaching 60%.

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November 12, 2014

Beer with Ketchup and Vodka with Mayonnaise

Oksana MalynovskaAnalyst Insight by Oksana Malynovska - Head of Industry Research

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Traditionally, specific countries are associated with specific drinks, for example tea in China, wine in France or beer in Belgium. Often a country is associated with more than one drink, for example vodka and tea in Russia or wine and coffee in Italy. It is the local heritage and culture of consumption that define these associations.

Work done by Euromonitor International’s Centre for Analytics, Modelling and Innovation (CAMI) seems to suggest that analysing drinking cultures alongside national food preferences might reveal additional correlations. There seems to be a relationship between sales of a particular type of alcohol and nuances of national cuisine. Beer sales, for example, correlate well with ketchup. Wine sales tend to follow cheese. And vodka sales correlate well with mayonnaise.

Vodka and Mayonnaise Sales, 2014

Source: Euromonitor International

Note:  shaded area indicates confidence bands (the strength of linear relationship). More points covered by the shaded area indicates stronger relationship between variables.

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November 7, 2014

Trends in Global Industry

Trends outlined in this video included German automotive production, real estate in Asia Pacific and global telecommunications.  Watch the video for statisicts and insights.

October 26, 2014

China's Wages set to Rise in the Near Future

China accounted for around a third of total global manufacturing output in 2013 and an increase in the cost of labour will have a direct impact on the price of end consumer goods as well as company profit margins. As a result, some manufacturers will move their production hubs to other low-cost markets such as Indonesia and Vietnam. Watch the full video for complete insights.

Carrie_LennardVideo Features Carrie Lennard - Business Environment Manager

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Commodities Roundup: October 2014

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Prices in nearly all commodities continued to decline in October driven by slowing global economic growth and concerns about demand.  Listen to the full podcast for insights into oil, grains, grapefruit, beef, and more.

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An HodgsonPodcast Features An Hodgson, Industry, Infrastructure and Environment Manager

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Recent Posts

How Does the Sharp Decline in Oil Prices Impact Oil Exporters?

The Consequences of Indonesia’s Nickel Export Ban

European Banks in 2015: What to Expect?

Asia Pacific Recap: Key Events that Shaped the Region in 2014

Global Energy Consumption – 5 Key Facts

China and India: The Powerhouses of the Asia Pacific Cocoa Market

Beer with Ketchup and Vodka with Mayonnaise

Trends in Global Industry

China's Wages set to Rise in the Near Future

Commodities Roundup: October 2014