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March 4, 2015

The Growing Impact of Emerging Economies on the Internet


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The arrival of devices like budget smartphones has allowed low-income households in developing economies has led to increasing internet penetration in those markets. In 2013, 70% of internet users were located in developing countries. Mobile internet is the driving force behind this rapid growth.  Listen to the podcast for complete insight.

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March 3, 2015

The Colour of a Dress and Milan's Catwalks Illuminate Online/Real World Convergence

Daphne KasrielAnalyst Insight by Daphne Kasriel-Alexander - Consumer Trends Consultant

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Who would have thought that a posting on the colour of a dress worn to a wedding in Scotland, asking whether it was blue and black or white and gold, would spread like wildfire over social networks, engaging close to 30 million people within a matter of days. It polarized consumers and led to extended discussions on perception which broke traffic records on Buzzfeed and Tumblr and got twitterers tweeting with relish. Real world sales of the dress have soared.  Buoyed by simplicity and universality, this ‘debate’  “definitely felt like a special thing” said Buzzfeed’s editor in chief, Ben Smith. “It sort of erased the line between web culture and real culture”. Milan's Autumn/Winter 2015 catwalks too have been featuring symbols saluting the importance of things digital with fashion businesses switching their haute couture launches to the virtual world.

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Who's Buying the Most and Least Calories Worldwide?

Euromonitor explores the global purchase of calories around the world using the Passport Nutrition database.

Want access to even more global nutrition and dietary data? Request a demo today to learn how Passport Nutrition helps you position your products and company for success.

March 2, 2015

Q&A: First Steps to Success in Emerging Markets


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My recent webinar “First Steps to Success in Emerging Markets” explored the vital factors for consideration when selecting new country markets. These are framed by our four pillar model: Market, Population, Access and Business Environment; which brings methodological clarity to the market selection process.  Attracting more than 300 attendees, the webinar ended with a thought-provoking Q&A session. Highlights of which are below.

How do you rate Cuba as a prospective market?

Cuba has been identified by Euromonitor as a “Consumer Market of the Future”, even before the thaw with the US. It has some demographic challenges – a relatively old population in slow decline, low average incomes and weak infrastructure - but it also has growth potential for fast-moving-consumer goods – tailored to suit local tastes. Yet competition already exists from Chinese companies and Spanish, as well as home-grown. Also tackling issues like a lack of brand awareness and a culture unused, or unaccepting of commercialism, means it’s not without its challenges. Although the US embargo has not yet been lifted, the time might be right to re-evaluate Cuba’s potential as a consumer market.

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March 1, 2015

Commodities Roundup: February 2015


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Most commodities continued on the downward trend that began back in mid-2014. Overall commodities prices fell by 12% in January over the previous month. This podcast discuses trends and driving factors behind these falling prices.  Listen to the podcast for complete insights.

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February 26, 2015

Overview of World’s Chocolate Powder Drinks Market and Toddy’s Evolution

Hope.LeeAnalyst Insight by Hope Lee - Senior Beverages Analyst

The global chocolate powder drinks market is forecast to see a net growth of around US$800 million in 2014-2019, contrasting to malt-based drinks’ US$500 million. However, considering the potential growth and compared to the possible sales from coffee and tea anticipated, chocolate powder drinks is definitely a niche category and mostly neglected by major hot drinks manufacturers, despite the fact that they may have a couple of hot chocolate powder drinks brands as a complementary product. Euromonitor International’s latest data show that Nestlé continues to be the world’s market leader in chocolate powder drinks, accounting for over one third of retail value sales in 2014. Mondelez and PepsiCo are placed in second and third position, competing with each other closely.

In terms of geographic growth, Brazil, the largest market for chocolate powder drinks, is predicted to generate around US$340 million sales in 2015-2019, top of all major growth markets. Meanwhile, PepsiCo’s Toddy is evolving to become a major brand in Brazil’s food and beverages market. This article gives an overview of the global market and discusses the state of play of major brands, with particular emphasis on Toddy.

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February 25, 2015

Higher Education Rising Globally

A rising population with higher education goes hand-in-hand with a shift toward more sophisticated job sectors. This, in turn, drives rising levels of disposable income. This video examine causation, trends and specific markets experiencing the highest growth rates in consumers pursuing advanced degrees.

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LEGO Tightens Its Grip on Global Construction Toys

Utku_TanselAnalyst Insight by Utku Tansel - Head of Toys and Games Research

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As highlighted in our recent global company profile, LEGO, the world’s third biggest manufacturer of traditional toys and games, continues its dynamic expansion bolstered by the success of 2014’s The LEGO Movie. The world’s leading construction toys manufacturer was among the most dynamic toymakers in the world over 2009-2013, more than doubling its sales.

LEGO’s global strength is founded on its dominance of the construction toys category, in which it held a 65% value share in 2013. Construction toys accounted for 94% of the company’s global toys and games value sales during the year, with games and puzzles responsible for most of the remainder. However, LEGO decided to phase out its LEGO Games board game product line in 2013, judging that it did represent a sustainable fit with the company’s core long-term operations.

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February 24, 2015

2015 Outlook for Emerging Market Economies


EMEs will face a diverging growth outlook in 2015, while continuing to lead the global growth momentum. Low fuel prices will benefit energy-importing countries thanks to savings to countries and consumers and narrow current account deficits, but it will depress the revenues of commodity-exporting emerging countries. Meanwhile, increased volatility in capital inflows and currency, and further geopolitical destabilisation in some countries/regions remain the major risks for EMEs.

Key points 

  • In 2015, annual real GDP growth in 25 key EMEs is forecast to increase by 4.4% (fixed US$ constant terms), marginally up from 4.3% in 2014. While growth is expected to pick up in some emerging countries thanks to falling oil prices and an improving US economy, fragilities in the global economy and existing weaknesses will affect other countries’ growth prospects;

  • Apart from global oil prices, China’s slowdown, the prospects of interest rate hikes in the USA and geopolitical risks are the major factors impacting the growth outlook of EMEs in 2015. China’s slower growth will have knock-on effects on commodity exporters, while a rise in interest rates in the USA will have immediate impacts on some emerging countries’ current account balances and currencies. Turkey’s current account deficit stood at 5.3% in 2014, down from 7.9% in 2013;

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February 23, 2015

Macro Model Quarterly Forecast Update, 2015 Q1

Daniel SolomonAnalyst Insight by Daniel Solomon - Economist

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The global economic outlook for 2015-2016 presents a mixed picture. The Eurozone’s recovery remains weak, with Italy re-entering a recession at the end of 2014 and slower than expected growth in Germany and France.  Eurozone growth is expected to reach 1.1% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. Japan’s economy is expected to barely grow by 0.3% in 2015 after entering a technical recession in the 3rd quarter of 2014. The US and the UK are expected to continue their relatively strong expansion in 2015, with GDP growth of 3.3% and 2.5% respectively.

China is expected to slow down towards an average growth rate of 6% in 2017-2021. India is expected to rebound in 2015-2016 towards an annual growth rate of 6.4% in 2017-2021. Meanwhile our outlook for Brazil has worsened yet again with 0.5% growth in 2015, followed by below average growth of 1.7% in 2016. Russia is now expected to spend 2015-2016 in recession with output falling by 3.8% in 2015 and by another 0.4% in 2016, and the risks are heavily tilted to the downside.

In the rest of this report, we take a closer look at the economies of the US, Eurozone, China, Japan, Russia and the UK. In this report, we have also started to publish long term potential growth rate forecasts for 2022-2030.

Continue reading "Macro Model Quarterly Forecast Update, 2015 Q1" »


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Recent Posts

The Growing Impact of Emerging Economies on the Internet

The Colour of a Dress and Milan's Catwalks Illuminate Online/Real World Convergence

Who's Buying the Most and Least Calories Worldwide?

Q&A: First Steps to Success in Emerging Markets

Commodities Roundup: February 2015

Overview of World’s Chocolate Powder Drinks Market and Toddy’s Evolution

Higher Education Rising Globally

LEGO Tightens Its Grip on Global Construction Toys

2015 Outlook for Emerging Market Economies

Macro Model Quarterly Forecast Update, 2015 Q1