Forecast: World’s Largest Economies in 2020

Analyst Insight by Media Eghbal, Country Insight Managing Editor, Euromonitor International

Euromonitor International predicts that in 2020, emerging markets will dominate the top five largest economies.The most symbolic shift will be when China overtakes the USA as the largest economy globally. This Q&A will answer some of the key questions about what our forecasts of the world’s largest economies mean and what implications this will have for global consumer market development. Emerging economies are driving global economic growth but advanced economies will retain a competitive advantage with higher per capita incomes and greater consumer market expenditure, while governments in developing countries face challenges in keeping up with the pace of economic growth.

Euromonitor predicts that the world’s five largest economies in 2020, measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms (PPP) will be:

Source: Euromonitor International Euromonitor International from national statistics/Eurostat/OECD/UN/International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics (IFS)

The three biggest emerging economies will account for around 30.0% of global GDP in PPP terms in 2020 compared to 23.5% in 2012 when there were just two emerging markets amongst the five largest economies (1. USA 2. China 3. India 4. Japan 5. Germany). The most discernible shift in global power towards emerging market economies is expected to take place in 2017 when China will become the world’s largest economy.

Global Pharmaceuticals Industry 2012

Global pharmaceuticals revenue growth slipped in 2012 recording 2% annual growth. China, US and Japan remain the main payers in the industry. China will continue to strengthen its positions in the future.

Despite Higher Demand for Toys, Global Toymakers yet to Convert Market Growth into Actual Sales in Emerging Markets

Analyst Insight by Utku Tansel, Head of Toys and Games Research, Euromonitor International

As it was highlighted in our new global briefing, "Corporate Strategies in Emerging Toy Markets," Latin America may be the talking point for Mattel, and LEGO is doing well in Eastern Europe; nevertheless, emerging markets, in particular Asia Pacific, have yet to reveal their true potential for multinational toy manufacturers.

Global toys growth is shifting towards emerging markets, and this trend is expected to continue

Emerging markets have become more important across all industries, and the shift is especially pronounced in traditional toys. Between 2006 and 2011, growth in developed countries averaged 1%, while emerging countries registered 13% average annual growth, driving the global toys sales.

Masculinity vs Health: Challenges and Opportunities

Cultural and social pressures shape men as tough, which ultimately affects their health outcomes. A strong sense of independence, control & resilience often prevents men from seeking timely help related to health. Not surprisingly male life expectancy shows unfavourable gaps when compared to the female gender. Consumer health offers therapies and options that may improve life expectancy. Market opportunities exist in the promotion of men’s health. The challenge is to find successful approaches.

The report offers:

• An overview of masculinity and health indicators
• What does consumer health offer to men?
• Approaching and talking to men
• What is the future of men’s health

Download a sample of "Masculinity Vs Health: Challenges and Opportunities"

For more information on this report, please contact Olivier Hoffman <Olivier.Hofmann@euromonitor.com>

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14 Facts about Mothers from Euromonitor's Survey Research

14 Facts about Mothers from Euromonitor's Survey Research

Euromonitor International's Annual Survey revealed global trends among mothers. Read 10 key facts below and then listen to our podcast to learn more.

1. Despite other demands on their time, mothers exercise slightly more often than women who have no children (69% of mothers do physical activity weekly vs. 61% of female non-mothers; 41% of mothers go to the gym each week vs. 35% of female non-mothers).
2. Parents (both mothers and fathers) use shortcuts for information about nutrition—such as testimonials and packaging—more than non-parents.
3. Mothers use advertising (TV, print, internet) as a shortcut to find out about other product information.
4. Nine out of ten mothers prepare meals at home at least once a week, more often than anyone else, including fathers (7 out of 10).
5. Mothers typically prepare home-cooked meals using entirely raw ingredients (62%), relying less on pre-prepared ingredients, such as shop-bought sauces (43%).
6. When mothers do choose convenience options such as ready meals, it is because they are pressed for time—not because they prefer ready meals or because they cannot or do not like to cook.
7. Almost half (47%) of mothers say they are on a diet trying to lose weight
8. Although mothers say they are health-conscious, they “cave in” and snack more often than non-mothers during the daytime (2.2 vs. 2.0 snacks per day on average)
9. Mothers in developed markets are more willing to spend extra on convenient products (49%) versus “green” products (36%)
10. Mothers in emerging markets consider a variety of other product information beyond quality, price, and convenience, such as branding and packaging, as well as “green”
11. Mothers in emerging markets especially enjoy learning about new products (trying new products, browsing shopping malls), compared to mothers in developed markets
12. Mothers in developed markets are especially cost-conscious and enjoy bargain-hunting more than mothers in emerging markets (though they are not necessarily using their smartphones to find deals)
13. 60% of mothers visit social networking websites (e.g., Facebook) at least weekly, compared with 55% of fathers and 46% of non-parents
14. Mothers and fathers share photos and videos online more frequently than non-parents (31% vs. 32% vs. 27%)

These results about mothers were derived from responses to Euromonitor International’s Annual Survey 2011; this survey reached out to ~16,000 online consumers ranging in age from 15 to 65+ and living in 8 major markets:  Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, USA.  

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UK Government Abandons Plain Packaging for Tobacco

It is expected that in the Queen's Speech 2013, the plain packaging law for tobacco that was proposed in the UK will not be introduced. Shane MacGuill, Tobacco Industry Analyst, confirms the news in this podcast and discusses the significance of the decision for the tobacco industry. Abandoning the law may influence other governments looking to pass similar laws to abandon their efforts. This news comes as a relief for Imperial Tobacco, who is now relying on packaging innovation to grow volume sales.

Download as an MP3

Groupe Pernod Ricard Helps to Lift Spirits in France with a More Affordable Bottle Size

Analyst Insight by Karine Dussimon, Senior Analyst - Packaging, Euromonitor International

Greater economic difficulties were at the source of a slight contraction in alcoholic drinks consumption in France in 2012. Yet, with French consumers still favouring consumption in the comfort of their own homes over the more expensive foodservice experience, there is still room for beverage brand owners to bring the fun home. Leading alcoholic drinks producer Groupe Pernod Ricard’s latest attempt to shake up the challenged spirits marketplace with packaging innovation – this time adding a smaller 350ml glass bottle version of some of its key brands to the mix – is a smart way to match demand for greater affordability with a consumer desire to drink less but to also enhance their experience with product quality and choice.

More than Half of the Top 10 Most Heavily Licensed Traditional Toys and Games Markets are in Asia Pacific

Analyst Insight by Utku Tansel, Head of Toys and Games Research, Euromonitor International

As I explore in our new global briefing, Global Licensing Trends in Traditional Toys and Games, licensing is one of the key parameters affecting toys sales globally. More than half of the top 10 most heavily licensed traditional toys and games markets are in Asia Pacific, and in almost all these markets the proportion of 0-14 year-olds in the total population was below 20% in 2012, suggesting that the grown-up population also has a say in which licensed toys are purchased. As toy brands penetrate into other industries beyond toys and games at a faster pace, there are certainly great opportunities as well as risks. The only question is how to locate them.

Global Population Under the Age of 30 Centered in Emerging Markets

Half the global population is under the age of 30 although proportions are declining worldwide. Disparities are evident across regions with 90% of the world population under the age of 30 concentrated in emerging countries. Africa and the Middle East has the highest proportion, while advanced economies, which are ageing rapidly, have smaller youth ratios. Children and young people are an important consumer segment and indicate future labour market development.

Hear Us Speak at SNACKEX 2013

Date: 12 and 13 June 2013
Location: Gothenburg, Sweden
Presentation day and time: 12 June at 14.30 (Sweden Time)

In his presentation,  Lamine Lahouasnia, Head of Packaged Food Research at Euromonitor International, will provide a strategic insight and analysis on how retailer own brands are developing and what manufacturers are doing to keep one step ahead of private labels.

Organised by the European Snacks Association (ESA), SNACKEX is the only 100% focused savoury snacks and snack nut event in Europe which unites the savoury snack industry in a single-destination tradeshow and conference, serving as the pre-eminent business meeting place for the industry. 

Follow the conversation on Twitter!

@SNACKEX
@Euromonitor
@LLahouasnia