Analyst Insight by Don Hedley - Contributing Analyst
In its third quarter report Swedish Match announced a new corporate vision - ‘A world without cigarettes’. Entry into this brave new world is enabled by the availability of products ‘recognised as safer alternatives to cigarettes’. As a non combustible tobacco product snus may be unofficially be so regarded but officially this product is lumped together with cigarettes in terms of dire health warnings. The company is currently seeking to change this situation having submitted a lorry load of data aimed at refuting two of the health warnings compulsorily carried by its products in the US.
How this turns out will be of great significance for the global moist snuff business: a positive result would also help in Sweden’s ongoing crusade to get the EU oral snuff ban lifted. Meanwhile the obvious question is whether current progress of Swedish Match’s oral snuff products and particularly snus, and the performance of smokeless tobacco in general, justifies its vision of a world without cigarettes.
Continue reading "Swedish Match Evokes World Without Cigarettes in 3Q Results" »
Analyst Insight by Daniel Solomon - Economist
The speed of the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis has been unusually slow. The slow recovery is a symptom of the permanent decline in GDP following a financial crisis, since the economy never fully rebounds from the initial recession. We estimate long term output losses from the crisis ranging from almost none in Germany to almost 20% in Italy and Spain. This article highlights several factors behind the slow recovery and the large long term effects of the crisis:
- The financial crisis made the economy more vulnerable to other negative shocks.
- Trend growth may have been slowing down before the crisis.
- Financial crises lead to big drops in labour productivity that take a long time to reverse.
Figure 1: GDP Per Working Age Person in Advanced Economies since 2007
Source: Euromonitor Macro Model and International Statistics
Note: 2007 level normalised to 1 for all countries. Forecast starts in 2014.
Continue reading "The Recovery from the Global Financial Crisis of 2008: Missing in Action" »
As 2014 marches on to its conclusion, thoughts are already turning to the economic outlook for next year. Risks to the outlook have increased throughout this year, but as expected back in January, developed economies taken as whole have seen their growth strengthen, whilst emerging and developing economies taken as a whole have seen their growth weaken over 2013. Notable exceptions are present of course – including India on the upside – which has benefitted from the Modi effect which has boosted confidence and the USA on the downside whose weather-related Q1 slowdown has dampened growth on an annual basis and has led to its forecast real GDP growth in 2014 remaining broadly stable over 2013 at 2.1
An uncertain outlook for the economy
We are currently expecting stronger growth in 2015, driven by a pick-up in major markets including the USA, the eurozone, Japan and India. We expect global real GDP growth to increase to 4.0% - the strongest rate of growth since 2011. Yet the outlook for 2015 remains clouded by a myriad of risks – notably geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Ukraine and any potential flow-on effects on commodity prices, the threat of deflation in the eurozone and persistent lowflation in advanced economies in general, tightening monetary policy in the USA, continued fears over the China slowdown, the lingering debt burden and a deepening of the ebola crisis. In one word, the outlook for 2015 can be summed up by “uncertain”. Seven years on from the financial crisis the global economic recovery remains disappointingly fragile.
Continue reading "What Might the Global Economy Have in Store for us in 2015?" »
Analyst Insight by Hope Lee - Senior Beverages Analyst
Ahmad Tea London Ltd, ranked fifth in the tea globally, is one of the few long-established, family-owned companies with a significant international presence. Euromonitor International’s data show that Ahmad registered shares in over 20 markets in 2013, with a particularly strong presence in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and some African countries. Its relatively wide geographic coverage in these emerging markets makes it a multinational company but it is not a truly global operator compared to first tier conglomerates Unilever, Tata Global Beverages and Associated British Foods. Under Unilever’s mighty leadership, Ahmad Tea’s global status is similar to that of Orimi Trade OOO and Teekanne, relying on concentrated coverage in certain regions while weak in other regions. Ahmad Tea and Orimi, for example, are both absent from North America and Asia Pacific but are strong in Russia. However, Ahmad Tea does not show an urgent need to address its geographical weakness. Any companies, big or small, listed or private, are looking for growth, and stagnancy is sometimes the biggest internal threat, as the marketplace and competitive landscape are changing all the time. Ahmad Tea faces the same environment as everyone else.
Continue reading "Ahmad Tea: Exploration of Home Market and Challenges Abroad" »
Date: 1-2 December 2014
Location: Novotel, Amsterdam
Conference: The Fi Driving Dairy Innovation Conference brings you 1,5 days of must-know content and unparalleled networking at the only event globally focused on Dairy Innovation, Market Trends, Regulations, Technical Challenges and Health & Wellness Trends. Learn from industry experts like Dannon, Arla Foods, Meiji, First Milk and other main players in the European and International Dairy Sector.
Continue reading "Euromonitor to Speak at Fi Driving Dairy Innovation Conference 2014" »
Germany is celebrating the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9th this year. Since its reunification in 1990, Germany has gone from being the sick man of Europe to the powerhouse economy of the eurozone – a group which it dominates:
- Germany is home to 24.2% of the eurozone’s population and 29.7% of its households with an annual disposable income over US$300,000;
- German exports accounted for 32% of the eurozone’s total in 2013;
- Germany accounts for more than one quarter of eurozone GDP, and notwithstanding its slowdown, is expected to account for 53.6% of its growth this year;
- At 5.3% in 2013, Germany’s unemployment rate is less than half the eurozone average.
Continue reading "Germany: 25 Years on from the Fall of the Berlin Wall" »
Analyst Insight by Media Eghbal - Head of Countries' Analysis
One of the biggest challenges facing global policymakers is how to feed the world’s growing population (expected to reach 8 billion by 2024) and expanding middle class, which has resulted in an accompanying increase in protein demand as consumer diets shift towards meat. The answer could be…insects, which are already being eaten in many parts of the world by an estimated 2 billion people according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Food security is becoming more pressing as extreme weather cycles have played havoc with harvests and crops in recent years resulting in food price spikes, protectionist policies or crop hoarding.
Emerging markets are driving both global population growth and the expansion of the middle class, and demand for meat is growing:
In line with such trends, the FAO released a report in 2013 examining edible insects for the future of food, highlighting the fact that farming of such insects could provide a solution to tackling global hunger and food shortages.
Continue reading "Are Insects the Answer to Global Food Security?" »
Analyst Insight by Neil King - Automotive Analyst
The anticipated flood of Chinese cars on European shores has simply not materialised. Even in the UK, where SAIC (Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation) produces cars bearing the infamous MG badge, the brand captures less than 0.1% of the UK passenger car market and no other Chinese contenders appear in data released by the national trade association, the SMMT. It is rather intriguing that Chinese OEMs have not followed the strategy of Japanese and Korean brands, which entered Europe successfully by offering cars that undercut competitors on price and/or featured higher specifications as standard equipment. As for why this is the case, there are several reasons.
Continue reading "China’s Electric Vehicle Push Could Reap Rewards in Europe" »
Driven by a combination of cost and health considerations, environmental awareness and worsening traffic congestion, bicycle ownership is on the rise. For more and more people, bikes are no longer the poor relation of cars but a greener and smarter transportation choice.
Continue reading "On Your Bike! Global Bicycle Ownership Trends" »