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April 17, 2014

The EU’s Investment Black Hole

Economic and Consumer Insight with Sarah Boumphrey

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Declining  Gross Fixed Capital Investment Across the EU

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Between 2008 and 2013 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) declined in all EU member states. The largest single decline was in Greece, where GFCF was €36 billion less in 2013 than it was in 2008 (in 2013 prices). Yet in terms of importance to GDP, GFCF contributes the least to GDP in Ireland. GFCF, which is a measure of investment, is important as it lays the foundations for future economic growth.

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April 15, 2014

Webinar: The Rise of Luxury Spending in Emerging Markets

The-Rise-of-Luxury-Spending-in-Emerging-Markets-Web-BannerDrive Consumer Expenditure by Tapping into Emerging Wealth Markets

April 29, 2014  |  9 a.m. CST/3 p.m. GMT

The global picture of wealth is changing. The number of high-income earners in emerging markets is rising rapidly, yet few companies are taking advantage of this growth to drive profits.

This webinar provides insights into the profiles and spending habits of high income earners and long-term forecasts for wealth distribution, helping you develop a more strategic plan for growth. 

Discover:

  • What markets hold the most opportunities for expansion
  • Pivotal trends shaping the future of the luxury goods market
  • Short and medium term strategies used by the world's most prominent luxury brands for success

Register Today Button

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April 14, 2014

The New African Order

Sarah-B-Banner

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The Nigerian statistics office, recognised by the IMF, has recalculated Nigerian GDP and the economy is now 89% larger than it was previously stated. This makes it the 22nd largest economy in the world (measured in current market prices in US$) – compared to 37th pre-revision, and the largest economy in Africa – now 49% bigger than South Africa.

Total GDP in Nigeria Pre- and Post-revision: 2010-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Note: Data refer to GDP in current market prices. 2013 data are estimates.

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April 10, 2014

Income Inequality: A Rampant, Global Problem

An Hodgson with An Hodgson, Income and Expenditure Manager

Income inequality is one of the greatest risks to the global economy today, and with austerity measures, tax policies and widespread corruption all leading to greater inequality, the problem is widespread. Not only can income inequality undermine business environments, but it can also lead to political instability. Euromonitor forecasts that into 2030, income inequality will widen in 70 out of 85 countries, highlighting the fact that narrowing income inequality is no easy task.

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April 9, 2014

Thailand had Biggest Growth in Foreign Debt Globally from 2008-2013

Foreign Debt Growth Map

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Foreign debt is debt owed by a country to another. High levels of foreign debt can be riskier than domestically owned debt, due to the increased risks of contagion. Thailand had the biggest growth in foreign debt from 2008-2013, rising by 483% in real terms due to a boom in outward foreign investment from Thailand. Burundi’s declined by 76.1% in the same period, the biggest globally, as much of its debt was written off in 2009.

Learn more about our Economy, Finance, and Trade research: http://www.euromonitor.com/economy-finance-and-trade

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April 8, 2014

Copper Surplus Impacting Economies in Asia and Latin America

 

Copper prices have been trading at close to 25 percent below their 2011 peak due to a surplus. China’s economic slowdown is expected to impact copper demand as the country consumes 40 percent of the world’s supply and global copper production has increased as well. Chile, Peru and Australia rely on copper exports to China, and without China buying copper, it may weaken their economies.

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April 7, 2014

Latin America has Hurdles to Overcome in 2014

Sarah-B-Banner

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2013 was hardly a standout year economically speaking for Latin America. Real GDP growth for the region as a whole came in at just 2.7%, compared to 4.6% across emerging and developing countries. The region’s powerhouse economies – Brazil and Mexico - which between them account for 58.3% of Latin American GDP, both saw sluggish rates of growth of 2.3% and 1.1% respectively, with Brazil narrowly escaping recession in the 4th quarter. With Brazil hosting the World Cup all eyes are on the region in 2014, but although growth is strengthening, it is still set to disappoint in some quarters.

Real GDP Growth: 2008-2016

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/Eurostat/OECD/UN/IMF

Note: Forecasts begin in 2014

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April 6, 2014

Russian Economic Outlook Update: Risk of Recession Increases in 2014

Daniel SolomonAnalyst Insight by Daniel Solomon - Economist

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Given recent developments, we have downgraded our economic outlook for Russia. We now expect the Russian economy to grow by only 0.9% in 2014 (revised from 2.1% in the December 2013 forecast) and by 2% in 2015 (revised from 3.2% in the December 2013 forecast). We have also reduced our  longer run economic growth forecasts, implying an average growth rate of 2% over the remainder of this decade. Even this forecast may be too optimistic. We assign around a 30% probability to a recession in 2014. In a slowdown scenario, Russian GDP would contract by 0.2% in 2014. We assign this scenario a 20% probability. In a severe recession scenario, we see Russian GDP declining by 1.2% in 2014 and by a further 3.3% in 2015. We assign this scenario a 10% probability. 

Table 1: GDP Growth Forecasts for Russia

  2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Baseline forecast 1.3 0.9 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.7
Slowdown scenario 1.3 -0.2 1.9 2.8 2.4 2.5
Severe recession scenario 1.3 -1.2 -3.3 3.5 3.1 2.5
Previous baseline forecast (Dec 13) 1.4 2.1 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3

Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model

 

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April 5, 2014

The 21st Century Kitchen

EMI_possHouseholdLA-v1.0

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As a result of strong economic growth in the region over recent years, a growing number of households in Latin America can now afford to buy such kitchen appliances as cookers, washing machines, refrigerators and microwave ovens. However, ownership levels of some appliances remain fairly low.

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April 4, 2014

Top 3 Digital Consumption Trends for 2014: Subscriptions, Showrooming and Social Saturation

Pavel_MarceuxAnalyst Insight by Pavel Marceux - Technology, Communications and Media Analyst

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Euromonitor International has identified the top three digital consumption trends for 2014. Internet users will consume more video-based media online as offerings expand and enter the mainstream; consumer trends such as showrooming and sofa shopping will see e-commerce activities migrate to smartphones; and the usage of new social media and rapidly expanding mobile messaging services will appeal to younger consumers. The continued expansion of home broadband services, especially into rural areas still underserved by infrastructure, and the establishment of 4G LTE as a mainstream mobile data service will increase speeds for consumers and thereby facilitate greater consumption of digital goods and services in general in 2014.

Global Mobile Internet Subscriptions and Internet Retailing: 2008-2013

Source: Euromonitor International from trade sources/national statistics

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Recent Posts

The EU’s Investment Black Hole

Webinar: The Rise of Luxury Spending in Emerging Markets

The New African Order

Income Inequality: A Rampant, Global Problem

Thailand had Biggest Growth in Foreign Debt Globally from 2008-2013

Copper Surplus Impacting Economies in Asia and Latin America

Latin America has Hurdles to Overcome in 2014

Russian Economic Outlook Update: Risk of Recession Increases in 2014

The 21st Century Kitchen

Top 3 Digital Consumption Trends for 2014: Subscriptions, Showrooming and Social Saturation