Eurozone Economic Outlook: Q2 2017

by May 28th, 2017

Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model We have upgraded our outlook for the Eurozone since February, with GDP growth forecast at 1.5% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018. The economy has expanded faster than the long-term trend in the first half of 2017, despite high political uncertainty. Private sector confidence is significantly above the long-term average, […]

US Economic Outlook: Q2 2017

by May 23rd, 2017

US Forecast Updates, Q2 2017 Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model We have kept the forecast for the US economy stable since February with 2% annual GDP growth in 2017-2018. Private sector confidence measures are significantly above average, and stock market prices have continued rising. With a 4.4% unemployment rate, labour markets also appear healthy on […]

Trump Trade War Risks

by March 28th, 2017

During the presidential campaign Donald Trump threatened to drop out of trade deals such as the TPP, renegotiate NAFTA, and impose import tariffs of 35% on Mexico and 45% on China. The post-election financial markets rally and increase in business confidence are based on expectations that Trump’s threats on trade policy were not credible, especially given […]

Eurozone Economic Outlook: Q1 2017

by March 10th, 2017

Eurozone output increased by 0.4% in the last quarter of the year, with overall growth of 1.7% in 2016. Private sector sentiment has improved significantly since the summer of 2016, and is now close to pre-financial crisis levels. Eurozone Forecasts Relative to Pre-Trump Election, Q1 2017 Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model Nevertheless, we have maintained […]

US Economic Outlook: Q4 2016

by December 3rd, 2016

The Trump Effect: Fiscal Stimulus versus Negative Supply Shocks Trump’s surprise victory in the November presidential elections has significantly shifted the outlook for the US economy. Our initial post-election forecast was for a major downturn, leading to annual GDP growth of 0.4-0.7% in 2017-2018. The positive financial markets response in the last two weeks has […]

China Economic Outlook: Q4 2016

by November 26th, 2016

General Outlook We have revised our GDP growth forecast for China upwards to 6.7% in 2016 (from 6.4% in our August forecast). Several economic activity indicators, such as purchasing manager surveys and business profits, turned out better than expected earlier. Trump’s victory in the presidential election and the resulting global uncertainty shock has caused us […]

Brexit: Scenarios for the UK

by July 8th, 2016

The UK economic outlook has radically shifted after the victory of the Leave campaign in the June 24th referendum. At the beginning of July we revised our main UK macro forecasts. Our baseline scenario is for the UK to declare article 50 and negotiate a trade deal with the EU which is somewhere between Norway’s EEA […]