Forecast: World’s Largest Economies in 2020

Analyst Insight by Media Eghbal, Country Insight Managing Editor, Euromonitor International

Euromonitor International predicts that in 2020, emerging markets will dominate the top five largest economies.The most symbolic shift will be when China overtakes the USA as the largest economy globally. This Q&A will answer some of the key questions about what our forecasts of the world’s largest economies mean and what implications this will have for global consumer market development. Emerging economies are driving global economic growth but advanced economies will retain a competitive advantage with higher per capita incomes and greater consumer market expenditure, while governments in developing countries face challenges in keeping up with the pace of economic growth.

Euromonitor predicts that the world’s five largest economies in 2020, measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms (PPP) will be:

Source: Euromonitor International Euromonitor International from national statistics/Eurostat/OECD/UN/International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics (IFS)

The three biggest emerging economies will account for around 30.0% of global GDP in PPP terms in 2020 compared to 23.5% in 2012 when there were just two emerging markets amongst the five largest economies (1. USA 2. China 3. India 4. Japan 5. Germany). The most discernible shift in global power towards emerging market economies is expected to take place in 2017 when China will become the world’s largest economy.

Global Pharmaceuticals Industry 2012

Global pharmaceuticals revenue growth slipped in 2012 recording 2% annual growth. China, US and Japan remain the main payers in the industry. China will continue to strengthen its positions in the future.

Tourism in Sub-Saharan Africa to Continue to Enjoy Robust Growth

Analyst Insight by Paz Casal, Contributing Analyst, Euromonitor International

The tourism industry in sub-Saharan Africa experienced strong growth in 2012 despite the difficult global context, registering a 4.7% increase in arrivals, higher than the global average of 4.3% and second only to Asia Pacific with 5.1%. This has been fuelled by strong economic growth and rising disposable incomes, with business and leisure visits to domestic and regional destinations growing in number, alongside an increase in the number of arrivals from BRIC countries.

By 2017, the number of tourists travelling to sub-Saharan Africa is set to reach 42.6 million, with there being further potential for this figure to continue rising. However, significant investment in infrastructure and tourism training is required for inbound visitor numbers to show dramatic growth.

Despite Higher Demand for Toys, Global Toymakers yet to Convert Market Growth into Actual Sales in Emerging Markets

Analyst Insight by Utku Tansel, Head of Toys and Games Research, Euromonitor International

As it was highlighted in our new global briefing, "Corporate Strategies in Emerging Toy Markets," Latin America may be the talking point for Mattel, and LEGO is doing well in Eastern Europe; nevertheless, emerging markets, in particular Asia Pacific, have yet to reveal their true potential for multinational toy manufacturers.

Global toys growth is shifting towards emerging markets, and this trend is expected to continue

Emerging markets have become more important across all industries, and the shift is especially pronounced in traditional toys. Between 2006 and 2011, growth in developed countries averaged 1%, while emerging countries registered 13% average annual growth, driving the global toys sales.

Masculinity vs Health: Challenges and Opportunities

Cultural and social pressures shape men as tough, which ultimately affects their health outcomes. A strong sense of independence, control & resilience often prevents men from seeking timely help related to health. Not surprisingly male life expectancy shows unfavourable gaps when compared to the female gender. Consumer health offers therapies and options that may improve life expectancy. Market opportunities exist in the promotion of men’s health. The challenge is to find successful approaches.

The report offers:

• An overview of masculinity and health indicators
• What does consumer health offer to men?
• Approaching and talking to men
• What is the future of men’s health

Download a sample of "Masculinity Vs Health: Challenges and Opportunities"

For more information on this report, please contact Olivier Hoffman <Olivier.Hofmann@euromonitor.com>

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Kenyan Acquisition to Give L’Oréal a Boost in Sub-Saharan Africa

Analyst Insight by Oru Mohiuddin, Senior Analyst - Home and Personal Care, Euromonitor International

L’Oréal’s acquisition of Interconsumer Products Ltd (ICP), the largest local manufacturer of beauty products in Kenya, is a good move. L’Oréal stands to gain three clear advantages from the acquisition. Firstly, L’Oréal will be able to access an already established R&D centre dedicated to sub-Saharan beauty needs, which prior to the acquisition enjoyed relatively weak coverage in the company’s global portfolio. In addition, ICP’s infrastructure, including a manufacturing plant in Kenya and a distribution network in rapidly growing East African countries, will allow for deeper market penetration. Last but not least, L’Oréal will be able to further expand its brand portfolio along ethnic lines. 

More than Half of the Top 10 Most Heavily Licensed Traditional Toys and Games Markets are in Asia Pacific

Analyst Insight by Utku Tansel, Head of Toys and Games Research, Euromonitor International

As I explore in our new global briefing, Global Licensing Trends in Traditional Toys and Games, licensing is one of the key parameters affecting toys sales globally. More than half of the top 10 most heavily licensed traditional toys and games markets are in Asia Pacific, and in almost all these markets the proportion of 0-14 year-olds in the total population was below 20% in 2012, suggesting that the grown-up population also has a say in which licensed toys are purchased. As toy brands penetrate into other industries beyond toys and games at a faster pace, there are certainly great opportunities as well as risks. The only question is how to locate them.

Global Population Under the Age of 30 Centered in Emerging Markets

Half the global population is under the age of 30 although proportions are declining worldwide. Disparities are evident across regions with 90% of the world population under the age of 30 concentrated in emerging countries. Africa and the Middle East has the highest proportion, while advanced economies, which are ageing rapidly, have smaller youth ratios. Children and young people are an important consumer segment and indicate future labour market development.

Africa's Mobile Communications Revolution

Traditionally underserved by fixed-line telephony, the advent of mobile communications has been particularly beneficial to consumers in Africa and the Middle East. A large majority of households in such countries as Morocco and South Africa now have at least one mobile phone. This is helping to popularise such services as mobile payments in countries where bank accounts are rare. With handset prices falling, smartphones are growing in popularity, helping to drive strong growth in internet usage.

Detergent Fragrances in Middle East and Africa: From Floral to Oriental

Analyst Insight by Anaïs Mirval, Analyst - Ingredients, Euromonitor International

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The introduction of oriental scents as ingredients in the Middle East and Africa is emerging as a major trend in home care fragrance. According to Euromonitor International fragrance in the Middle East and Africa will enjoy the strongest growth globally with volume sales increasing 30% between 2011 and 2016, albeit from a lower base.