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October 25, 2014

Gender Influences Fragrances Prospects in Emerging Markets

Emi_fragrance-v1.4

Women’s fragrances have traditionally ruled the market ahead of men’s, including in terms of product availability. However, absolute growth forecasts reveal that emerging markets like Mexico and Argentina will generate more value in men’s fragrances over 2013-2018. This indicates an opportunity for industry players to step up men’s variety, where prospects compare well with those of women’s. Middle Eastern markets, essentially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will lead in premium unisex fragrances.

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October 21, 2014

Top 5 Fastest Growing Consumer Markets in 2014

An HodgsonAnalyst Insight by An Hodgson - Income and Expenditure Manager

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A comparison of all consumer markets in terms of their expected consumer expenditure annual real growth in 2014 reveals some interesting fast-growing markets that are not among the usual major emerging markets (such as the BRICS and the MINT). Of the top five fastest growing consumer markets of 2014, Malawi and Sierra Leone are somewhat surprising entrants while Turkmenistan and Saudi Arabia are fast-growing markets with sound fundamentals that can offer significant opportunities for consumer goods companies. Mongolia is also a market with promising prospects, but its small population restricts meaningful market expansion.

Top Five Fastest Growing Consumer Markets: 2014

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/Eurostat/UN/OECD

Note: Data are forecasts 

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October 20, 2014

Emerging Markets are not Shorthand for Doom or Boon

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It’s dangerous to group all emerging markets into one convenient basket, even within a region their prospects vary dramatically. Not all are suffering from a slump, but equally not all are dynamic, fast-growing economies. In a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, and with risks to the global economy seeming to increase on a daily basis, the devil is in the detail.

Economy

Bright stars include smaller emerging markets such as Turkmenistan, Laos, Rwanda and Cambodia. India is also seeing something of a turnaround with growth expected to come in at 5.4% in 2014 and 6.7% in 2015 supported by an upturn in business confidence following the general election, lower commodity prices and policy reform. Bangladesh and Nigeria are also expected to put in strong performances.

Real GDP Growth in Selected Emerging Markets: 2014-2030

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Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/Eurostat/OECD/UN/IMF

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September 26, 2014

Middle East and Africa - Local Beauty Players Set to Claim a Share of the Pie

Oru_MohiuddinAnalyst Insight by Oru Mohiuddin - Senior Beauty and Personal Care Analyst

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The fact that its forecast 4% CAGR will make the Middle East and Africa the third fastest-growing region in percentage terms between 2013 and 2018, accounting for nearly 10% of global growth over this period, is good news for beauty manufacturers. However, the question is whether it will be better news for local businesses or multinational players, as we are now seeing a growing tussle between the two camps? Despite the attractiveness of the market, it is not a straightforward situation for Western beauty players as there are a number of inherent challenges that need to be grappled with to make their ventures a success.

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Euromonitor to Speak at ATA Conference 2014

ATA LogoEvent: ATA Conference

Dates: November 11-16, 2014

Location: Kampala, Uganda

Description: ATA's signature event in Africa provides a networking, learning and agenda-shaping platform for the most diverse group of tourism industry stakeholders of any travel industry event on the continent. The event addresses timely industry topics, offers a line up of educational and professional development opportunities and showcases the host Destination’s newest products and services. Delegates also have the opportunity to participate in ATA’s Young Professionals Program forum, a tourism ministers’ roundtable, business-to-business and networking events, an African Bazaar, networking events, host country day(s), gala dinners and pre- and post- country tours.

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September 22, 2014

Special Report: Sub-Saharan Africa’s Top 5 Economies

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Sub-Saharan Africa’s five largest economies: Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, Ethiopia and Ghana accounted for 41% of the region’s population and 71% of its GDP in 2013. Four of the five, with the exception of South Africa, are forecast to experience strong economic growth in the coming years.

Download Data Highlights Now

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September 6, 2014

Special Report: Rising Geopolitical Tensions Counter Ample Oil Supplies and Impact Global Prices

160936622An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Libya and Ukraine will continue to add risks to the global oil markets, although oil prices have been largely stable since 2013, owing to a glut in supplies and a weaker-than-expected growth in demand. Global oil prices are an important economic indicator for businesses and consumers, as it affects inflation, households’ purchasing power, and industry’s production costs, thus having far-reaching implications for economic growth prospects.
 

 

 

Key points 

  • Regional political unrests have been on the rise since early 2014, with growing tensions from Iraq, Syria, the Gaza strip, Libya and between Russia and Ukraine. This will fuel the risk of disruptions in global oil supplies, as the Middle East and Russia are among the world’s largest oil producing countries/regions. The Middle East made up about one-third of global total oil production in 2013, according to BP Amoco; 

  • Nevertheless, global oil prices have remained subdued in the first half of 2014, driven by rising production and flat oil demand. The average spot price of Europe Brent crude oil stood at US$107 per barrel in July 2014, representing a month-on-month decline of 4.4%; 

  • The USA’s oil production capacity rose to 10.0 million barrels per day in 2013, soaring by 47.5% since 2008, due to a surge in shale oil extraction. Saudi Arabia is also extracting more oil to offset shortfalls caused by production disruptions in some countries in the region. Meanwhile, growth in oil demand has slowed, as a result of weaker-than-expected economic data from the eurozone and the USA in the first half of 2014; 

  • However, the outlook for global oil prices in the short term will continue to depend largely on geopolitical situations in the Middle East, North Africa and Ukraine, as well as on growth in global oil demand. A spike in global oil prices will affect economic growth prospects, reducing consumers’ purchasing power and putting downward pressure on company profits.    

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August 8, 2014

Improving Corruption Levels in Africa Boosting Long-Term Consumer Market Prospects

Carrie_LennardAnalyst Insight by Carrie Lennard - Business Environment Manager

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Sub-Saharan Africa is home to some of the world’s most corrupt economies: while Botswana is the highest ranked at 30th in the Corruption Perceptions Index 2013 out of 177 economies, many others such as Kenya rank over 100.  While some such as Nigeria are experiencing declines in their corruption levels, many others are improving: Rwanda for example rose from 103rd in 2008 out of 180 countries to 49th in 2013. Because corruption levels are strongly linked to economic stability, foreign direct investment inflows and government spending in areas such as education, this is contributing to a significant increase in average per capita consumer expenditure in markets where corruption is improving. This will boost long term prospects for consumer goods companies.

Corruption Perceptions Index Rankings in Selected Sub-Saharan African Economies: 2008/2013

Source: Euromonitor International from Transparency International

Note: 2008 rankings are out of 180 countries, 2013 out of 177 countries.

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July 22, 2014

National Automotive Industry Development Plan (NAIDP) Drives Car Sales to Record Levels in Nigeria

Neil-KingAnalyst Insight by Neil King - Automotive Analyst

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In October 2013, the Federal Government of Nigeria announced its National Automotive Industry Development Plan (NAIDP). In order to stimulate investment in local vehicle production and thereby bolster Nigeria’s economy instead of revenues heading abroad, a core component of the plan is an increase in import duties for passenger cars from 20% to 70% (35% duty and 35% levy) and to 35% for commercial vehicles. However, the duty applied to vehicles which are assembled locally is set at 10% for SKD (semi-knockdown) Part 2 kits, 5% for SKD Part 1 kits and 0% for CKD (complete knock-down) kits. Also, manufacturers that assemble vehicles locally can import up to twice as many FBU (fully built units) as they do kits at the reduced import duty rate of 35% for passenger cars and 20% for commercial vehicles.

The plan was fully implemented on July 1 and, not surprisingly, new car sales soared as consumers took advantage of the lower duty rates while they still could. The Executive Director of the Nigerian Automobile Manufacturers Association (NAMA), Mr Arthur Madueke, was quoted on July 8 on This Day Live that “between January and December 2013, about 52,000 new vehicles were imported, while by May this year, 37,000 cars have been imported.” With CBU imported vehicles paying the old rate of duty until the end of June, sales are likely to have boomed in the month and a 30% growth rate for the first half of 2014 is therefore not out of the question.

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July 17, 2014

Heineken NV: Reaching Out to Africa’s Growing Beer Market

Amin AlkhatibAnalyst Insight by Amin Alkhatib - Alcoholic Drinks Analyst

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Heineken NV is opening a third brewery in Ethiopia in 2014 in an effort to expand in African markets. This is expected to be the world's fastest-growing region in beer volume sales, in percentage terms, in the 2013-2018 period. The Middle East and Africa (MEA) is forecasted to grow, according to Euromonitor International, by a 5% CAGR in total volume sales. The significance of this logistical move derives from the company’s strategy to dominate the continent’s second-most populous market.

Africa’s population size, untapped low-income consumer expenditure, growing incomes and rate of urbanisation are all playing a part in its global significance. It is no surprise that global companies like Heineken are looking to get a stronger foothold in this continent, but they have to contend with incumbent brewers, especially SABMiller Plc.

Demography and Economy in Favour of Africa

As the urban population is expected to grow at 3% CAGR over 2013-2018 in the MEA, and the population is expected to grow by a CAGR of 2%, Heineken is looking towards a growing consumer base. But let’s not forget that growth of a beer consumer base will also depend on the degree of social mobility, and growing accessibility of low-income consumers to beer markets via affordability.    

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

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Recent Posts

Gender Influences Fragrances Prospects in Emerging Markets

Top 5 Fastest Growing Consumer Markets in 2014

Emerging Markets are not Shorthand for Doom or Boon

Middle East and Africa - Local Beauty Players Set to Claim a Share of the Pie

Euromonitor to Speak at ATA Conference 2014

Special Report: Sub-Saharan Africa’s Top 5 Economies

Special Report: Rising Geopolitical Tensions Counter Ample Oil Supplies and Impact Global Prices

Improving Corruption Levels in Africa Boosting Long-Term Consumer Market Prospects

National Automotive Industry Development Plan (NAIDP) Drives Car Sales to Record Levels in Nigeria

Heineken NV: Reaching Out to Africa’s Growing Beer Market