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Ranked: Top Pasta Markets by Value and Volume

October 25th, 2017

Today is World Pasta Day! These are the top 10 markets for pasta globally ranked by both value sales and by volume consumption.

Top Pasta Markets by Value (US$ million)

Geography

2017

1 Italy 3,157.7
2 USA 2,879.9
3 Brazil 1,851.4
4 Germany 1,338.5
5 Russia 1,293.3
6 France 1,285.3
7 Egypt 834.3
8 Argentina 757.0
9 Japan 730.9
10 Iran 685.5

 

Top Pasta Markets by Volume (‘000 tonnes)

Geography

2017

1 Italy 1,515.7
2 USA 1,101.1
3 Russia 957.9
4 Brazil 864.4
5 Germany 735.1
6 France 613.5
7 Turkey 595.7
8 Iran 568.8
9 Egypt 528.0
10 Argentina 422.1

 

Where Do Opportunities for Pasta Lie?

With regards to saturation, the situation is stark in Italy, pasta’s iconic market. Consumption per capita is 25kg. If the average serving size of pasta is 100g, this means that Italians consume pasta on two out of every three days. It is highly unlikely consumption will rise in Italy given the influx of competition from other grains as well as the decline of set mealtimes, consumption actually declined slightly between 2011 and 2016.

The main opportunities with regards to volume growth will be in the Middle East and Africa, as well as in small pockets within Asia Pacific. Turkey (considered a Western European market here but geographically in the area) Iran and Egypt are particularly appealing markets, as volume sales are already extremely high (combined volume sales totalled 1.6 million tonnes in 2016) and are anticipated to rise at a 4% CAGR between 2016 and 2021. Pasta is a locally produced staple in these countries and an important contributor to food security. It has grown in popularity in Iran as well as Russia in the past five years as sanctions have increased prices or prevented goods from being imported.

Yet whilst the affordability of pasta in these markets is a significant advantage, Euromonitor International’s industry demand model highlights that it is population growth and habit persistence that will have a stronger bearing on how these markets perform in the next five years. Put simply, pasta could fill the gap – and stomachs – of increased populations in these countries. In Egypt, where pasta is expected to grow at a 5% volume CAGR over the next five years, over two percentage points of this growth will stem from population growth; habit persistence – the cumulative lag effect of growth drivers from previous years – will contribute a further two percentage points as pasta becomes even more embedded.

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