Euromonitor International is pleased to announce the launch of its new strategy briefing: Global Economic Risks and Opportunities in 2017 and Beyond. The global economy is facing several key challenges: volatility brought about by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in the USA; the threat of stagnation in advanced economies and ongoing fears of a Chinese hard landing. On the other hand, there are also growth hotspots, especially amongst emerging markets, which provide opportunities, and because of the level of uncertainty facing the economy, many of the risks also have potential upside scenarios.
2016 was a low point for the global economy
2016 marked the lowest year of economic growth since the financial crisis driven by weak performances in many major emerging and developed economies.
In 2017 growth will strengthen
Global growth will pick up in 2017 to reach 3.4%, and it will continue to strengthen slightly in the medium-term. However, it will still remain significantly below pre-financial crisis levels.
Mixed medium-term outlook for advanced economies
2017 shows a mixed performance for major advanced economies with the Trump presidency and Brexit weighing on the outlook in the medium-term.
Emerging markets to strengthen in medium-term
In the medium-term, all emerging regions will strengthen – with the exception of emerging Asia. Its growth will decelerate slightly – because of the continuing slowdown in China. Nevertheless, emerging Asia will remain the world’s fastest-growing region.
Risks are on the downside with political stability a key threat
Key risks to the global economy include: the Trump presidency, Brexit, advanced economy stagnation, weak global trade and the threat of a Chinese hard landing.
Opportunities are also present – mainly in emerging markets
Key opportunities include: the stabilisation of commodity prices, the chance of a Trump fiscal boom, India’s strong performance and the possibility that China will surprise on the upside.