2016 has been a challenging year for the global economy, with two major political shocks in advanced economies – the UK’s decision to leave the EU, and the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency. In economic terms, the year has been defined by uncertainty, and consumers have reacted to this by reducing expenditure – with growth in global consumer expenditure slowing to 2.4% in real terms – the lowest rate of growth since the financial crisis. Our macro model was the focus of our economic analysis with the uncertainty facing the global economy highlighting the need to explore alternative growth scenarios.
Read the most popular content on Passport Economies in 2016:
Global Economic Forecasts
Our quarterly global economic outlook, containing our medium-range forecasts for real GDP growth, inflation and labour markets. Exploring in-depth the world’s major economies: USA, Eurozone, UK, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Russia we look at both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
Covering the entirety of manufacturing industries, including intermediate goods, food and beverages, primary materials, high-tech goods and others, this report investigates the key pillars required for the adaptation of industry 4.0. We analyse how the industrial revolution will reshape manufacturing processes, industries, companies and public institutions.
Uncertainty is the key challenge in regard to Brexit, and this uncertainty will contribute to falls in business and consumer confidence as well as delays to investment decisions. The protracted nature of any exit negotiations will not help. There are also wider implications for the EU, both in terms of its economy and its future as an organisation. Our new Strategy Briefing: Brexit and the Implications for the Consumer Goods Industry explores these factors and analyses the impact that Brexit could have across 6 consumer goods sectors: packaged food, beauty and personal care, home care, hot drinks, soft drinks and tissue and hygiene.
Cities of the Future: Emerging Market Champions
A number of cities in emerging countries stand considerably ahead of their countries in terms of development, as measured by a number of indicators. Differentiating cities’ consumer markets from their home countries is therefore a must for business, or otherwise significant expansion opportunities can be overlooked. Emerging Market Champions represent those cities with the best potential in the emerging world. The top emerging cities share a number of advantages over the developed world, including but not limited to, rapid market size growth, expanding middle class, large pools of educated professionals and low operation costs. Those are just a handful of reasons making cities such as Istanbul, Santiago and Shenzhen increasingly popular choices for international business expansion.
Classed by the World Economic Forum as the world’s number one long term risk, water crisis is a key issue impacting on a huge number of businesses, from energy production, to agriculture, food production, apparel and heavy end use industries such as beauty and personal care, laundry detergent and laundry appliances. This report looks at how a range of companies are tackling this pressing concern, from supply chain management, to community initiatives and product innovation.
Natural resources considerations impact almost every aspect of operations starting from ingredients supply, to manufacturing, distribution and finally marketing. As climate change leads to erratic weather patterns, depletion of reserves threaten the supply chain and changing consumer values make them more inclined towards green brands. Manufacturers are left with little option but to change their business models – the question is what are companies doing to adapt to the changing environmental dynamics?
In today’s age of increased interest in sustainability, heightened geo-political risk and competition for raw materials, resource management has become a priority for all companies. As consumers become more interested in purchasing green products, a highly developed corporate social responsibility policy is a necessity for business. Sustainability must be embedded into every aspect of the supply chain, starting with suppliers all the way to transport and disposal. Although businesses are expected to play a lead role in promoting sustainability goals, many are unsure of how to outline and execute the appropriate plans. Our white paper examines the major resource types: energy, water, food metals, and minerals; analysing the key drivers affecting supply and demand for natural resources; explores threats posed to businesses such as operational, reputational, and regulatory and market risks; and identifies opportunities, including resource efficiency, embracing the circular economy, substitution, new avenues for growth and the emergence of new business models. The imperative to change patterns of production and consumption will only grow and companies that are ahead of the curve, educating and leading consumers, will benefit.
A new strategy briefing that focuses on the increasingly competitive global labour market. The global labour landscape is rapidly changing. Emerging markets are fast becoming viable competitors to developed economies, due to improving education standards and business environments. At the same time, the use of automation and robotics are on the increase, all resulting in a highly competitive global labour market. Paradoxically, many markets struggle to fill skills shortages in sought-after fields of employment. The result? The Global Fight for Employment.
As the uncertainty surrounding a Brexit from the European Union (EU) rumbles on, the Economies team examine the potential implications of Brexit from the Business Dynamics, Cities, Economy and Industrial angles. Insights include a sharp recession on the horizon in the event of a disorderly Brexit, architectural services to be hit hard, the future of the UK’s dominance in attracting foreign students to be at risk, while Frankfurt and Paris could emerge as major rivals to London for financial services in Europe.
Our quarterly economic outlook for China exploring our stance on key economic trends as well as an analysis of risks facing the economy. Illustrating alternative scenarios, this regular report relies upon our macro model to underpin our analysis, showcasing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.